The best indicator for Junk Bonds
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Junk Bonds history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Junk Bonds stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Ichimoku TK Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Junk Bonds over ~18.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.6% CAGR.
Junk Bonds on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.98 | -7.2% | 76.5% | 17 | 0.6% |
| 2 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.98 | -8.2% | 42.1% | 38 | 1.0% |
| 3 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.96 | -10.4% | 47.6% | 42 | 0.7% |
| 4 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.95 | -8.6% | 50.0% | 34 | 0.7% |
| 5 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.95 | -13.0% | 46.9% | 32 | 1.7% |
| 6 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.94 | -9.7% | 47.4% | 38 | 0.6% |
| 7 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.94 | -8.6% | 51.5% | 33 | 0.5% |
| 8 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.93 | -11.7% | 43.7% | 190 | 1.2% |
| 9 | WMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.93 | -10.1% | 51.6% | 31 | 0.3% |
| 10 | RSI (50) ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.92 | -11.0% | 46.3% | 67 | 0.7% |
| 11 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.92 | -7.8% | 40.0% | 30 | -0.2% |
| 12 | FRAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.92 | -8.8% | 47.0% | 66 | -0.9% |
| 13 | CCI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.92 | -8.3% | 47.8% | 23 | 0.5% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.91 | -11.8% | 45.9% | 196 | 1.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Junk Bonds
2 of 551 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Junk Bonds outright. Another 259 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 65 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Tunnel | 1 | 2.29× | 16.76× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | 1 | 4.1× | 9.6× |
| EMA 100 Trend | — | 1.47× | 9.74× |
| RSI (50) | — | 1.47× | 9.74× |
| Disparity (100) | — | 1.47× | 9.74× |
| DMI Direction | — | 1.56× | 14.3× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Junk Bonds, Ichimoku TK Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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