The best indicator for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Negative Volume Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) over ~23.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.59 | -13.0% | 43.4% | 76 | -0.6% |
| 2 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.59 | -10.8% | 45.2% | 42 | -0.4% |
| 3 | Hull MA Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.58 | -11.1% | 51.7% | 60 | -0.7% |
| 4 | Hull MA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.58 | -10.0% | 46.9% | 49 | -0.9% |
| 5 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.57 | -9.8% | 44.2% | 52 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Percentage Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.57 | -10.0% | 53.7% | 41 | -0.9% |
| 7 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.57 | -10.9% | 55.9% | 34 | -0.8% |
| 8 | PPO Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.57 | -10.0% | 53.7% | 41 | -0.9% |
| 9 | PMax ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.57 | -10.4% | 46.2% | 39 | -0.7% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.56 | -10.0% | 53.7% | 41 | -0.9% |
| 11 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.56 | -12.0% | 47.6% | 21 | -0.5% |
| 12 | SMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.55 | -10.7% | 46.7% | 15 | -0.7% |
| 13 | ALMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.55 | -9.9% | 46.7% | 15 | -0.8% |
| 14 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.55 | -10.3% | 48.2% | 56 | -0.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF), Negative Volume Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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