The best indicator for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
HalfTrend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) over ~24.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.65 | -11.5% | 63.6% | 33 | -0.2% |
| 2 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.64 | -11.5% | 63.6% | 33 | -0.2% |
| 3 | Hull MA Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.61 | -10.6% | 50.8% | 61 | -0.4% |
| 4 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.59 | -10.0% | 52.5% | 40 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Percentage Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.59 | -10.0% | 52.5% | 40 | -0.6% |
| 6 | PPO Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.59 | -10.0% | 52.5% | 40 | -0.6% |
| 7 | Trend-Gated Asymmetric ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.59 | -7.3% | 64.0% | 25 | -1.1% |
| 8 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.58 | -13.0% | 43.4% | 76 | -0.4% |
| 9 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.58 | -10.8% | 44.2% | 43 | -0.4% |
| 10 | PMax ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.56 | -10.4% | 46.2% | 39 | -0.6% |
| 11 | Hull MA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.56 | -10.7% | 46.0% | 50 | -0.8% |
| 12 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.55 | -9.8% | 43.4% | 53 | -0.6% |
| 13 | CCI Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.55 | -11.5% | 41.5% | 53 | -0.6% |
| 14 | Triangular MA ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.55 | -9.7% | 46.9% | 64 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF)
188 of 625 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF) outright. Another 84 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 13 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ichimoku Cloud | 2 | none needed | 9.67× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | none needed | 7.48× |
| T3 30 Trend | 2 | none needed | 13.47× |
| ALMA 100 Trend | 2 | none needed | 8.93× |
| ZLEMA 100 Trend | 2 | none needed | 13.03× |
| LSMA 100 Trend | 2 | none needed | 9.29× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 7-10Y Treasuries (IEF), HalfTrend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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