The best indicator for Gold (IAU)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (IAU) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Gold (IAU) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
SMA 10/30 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (IAU) over ~21.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
Gold (IAU) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold (IAU) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.77 | -29.9% | 52.6% | 19 | -0.8% |
| 2 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.76 | -32.9% | 76.2% | 21 | -0.9% |
| 3 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.75 | -38.7% | 55.6% | 27 | -1.1% |
| 4 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.74 | -27.8% | 31.6% | 19 | -0.0% |
| 5 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.74 | -36.4% | 45.5% | 44 | -1.4% |
| 6 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 9.6% | 0.73 | -33.4% | 54.5% | 22 | -1.4% |
| 7 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.72 | -33.8% | 57.9% | 19 | -1.4% |
| 8 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.72 | -32.4% | 50.0% | 18 | -1.2% |
| 9 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.71 | -33.0% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.9% |
| 10 | ROC (14) ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.71 | -33.0% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.9% |
| 11 | CMO (14) ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.71 | -33.0% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.9% |
| 12 | Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.7 | -32.9% | 48.6% | 70 | -2.5% |
| 13 | ROC (10) ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.7 | -32.9% | 48.6% | 70 | -2.5% |
| 14 | Momentum (10) ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.7 | -32.9% | 48.6% | 70 | -2.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Gold (IAU)
4 of 599 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Gold (IAU) outright. Another 474 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 91 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.12× | 5.43× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | 1.46× | 5.36× |
| Williams Alligator | 1 | 3.23× | 5.59× |
| Positive Volume Index | 1 | none needed | 4.26× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 2.4× | 5.4× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.7× | 4.46× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Gold (IAU), SMA 10/30 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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