The best indicator for High Yield (HYG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real High Yield (HYG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where High Yield (HYG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DEMA 20/50 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for High Yield (HYG) over ~19.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
High Yield (HYG) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for High Yield (HYG) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.82 | -7.1% | 73.3% | 15 | -0.8% |
| 2 | TRIMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 3.6% | 0.75 | -9.4% | 41.7% | 36 | -1.3% |
| 3 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 3.1% | 0.75 | -5.4% | 69.2% | 39 | -1.8% |
| 4 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.75 | -12.3% | 73.3% | 15 | -0.5% |
| 5 | RSI (50) ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.74 | -14.0% | 45.7% | 81 | -0.5% |
| 6 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.73 | -10.4% | 37.3% | 59 | -0.8% |
| 7 | ROC (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.73 | -13.5% | 42.3% | 222 | -0.3% |
| 8 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.73 | -11.7% | 38.6% | 57 | -0.9% |
| 9 | CMO (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.73 | -13.5% | 42.3% | 222 | -0.3% |
| 10 | Disparity (100) ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.73 | -14.0% | 44.4% | 81 | -0.6% |
| 11 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.72 | -13.5% | 42.4% | 224 | -0.4% |
| 12 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.72 | -14.0% | 44.4% | 81 | -0.7% |
| 13 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.71 | -14.5% | 43.2% | 213 | -0.6% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index | Daily | 4.4% | 0.71 | -14.0% | 42.7% | 218 | -0.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on High Yield (HYG)
2 of 569 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on High Yield (HYG) outright. Another 241 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 59 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | 1 | 4.78× | 9.25× |
| TRIMA 200 Trend | 1 | none needed | 17.24× |
| Net Volume | — | 2.03× | 15.77× |
| Liquidity Flow Oscillator | — | 2.03× | 15.77× |
| Connors RSI | — | 2.13× | 11.93× |
| Connors RSI-2 | — | 2.31× | 13.57× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For High Yield (HYG), DEMA 20/50 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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