The best indicator for Gold (GLD)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GLD) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Gold (GLD) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
SMA 10/30 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GLD) over ~22.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Gold (GLD) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold (GLD) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.76 | -28.0% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.3% |
| 2 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.75 | -32.8% | 71.4% | 21 | -0.4% |
| 3 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.73 | -33.4% | 54.5% | 22 | -0.8% |
| 4 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.73 | -35.7% | 53.6% | 28 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.71 | -33.9% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.8% |
| 6 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.69 | -35.0% | 47.4% | 57 | -1.0% |
| 7 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.69 | -35.0% | 47.4% | 57 | -1.0% |
| 8 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.69 | -27.8% | 38.9% | 18 | -0.0% |
| 9 | Hull Suite ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.68 | -39.0% | 52.4% | 21 | -1.7% |
| 10 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.67 | -31.9% | 45.0% | 20 | -1.3% |
| 11 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.67 | -38.0% | 46.7% | 15 | -1.4% |
| 12 | RSI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.67 | -35.3% | 43.8% | 16 | -0.9% |
| 13 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.67 | -38.4% | 39.6% | 48 | -1.8% |
| 14 | Delta Volume (CVD proxy) ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.67 | -38.1% | 48.3% | 60 | -1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Gold (GLD)
3 of 601 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Gold (GLD) outright. Another 493 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 80 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.09× | 5.59× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | 1.57× | 5.3× |
| Balance of Power | 1 | 2.1× | 6.14× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 2.22× | 5.34× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.25× | 4.42× |
| ROC (60) | — | 1.23× | 4.3× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Gold (GLD), SMA 10/30 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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