The best indicator for Japan (EWJ)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Japan (EWJ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MA Envelope
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Japan (EWJ) over ~30.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Japan (EWJ) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.45 | -32.0% | 62.7% | 166 | 2.9% |
| 2 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.45 | -32.1% | 64.0% | 25 | 2.2% |
| 3 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.43 | -35.2% | 59.1% | 350 | 2.1% |
| 4 | Net Volume ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.43 | -24.6% | 50.7% | 71 | 2.1% |
| 5 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.43 | -24.6% | 50.7% | 71 | 2.1% |
| 6 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.42 | -30.6% | 40.4% | 47 | 1.3% |
| 7 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.41 | -41.3% | 54.5% | 22 | 1.7% |
| 8 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.4 | -27.5% | 57.1% | 14 | 2.0% |
| 9 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.4 | -33.1% | 64.3% | 14 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.37 | -33.8% | 62.6% | 337 | 1.3% |
| 11 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.37 | -37.0% | 53.8% | 39 | 1.4% |
| 12 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.36 | -30.5% | 58.1% | 31 | 1.3% |
| 13 | TRIX (15) ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.36 | -26.9% | 50.0% | 18 | 1.4% |
| 14 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.36 | -33.4% | 50.6% | 87 | 0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Japan (EWJ), MA Envelope on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get alerted when Japan’s signal flips
We track Japan daily. Its backtested best indicator, MA Envelope (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.