The best indicator for Japan (EWJ)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Japan (EWJ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Japan (EWJ) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
MA Envelope
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Japan (EWJ) over ~30.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR.
Japan (EWJ) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Japan (EWJ) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.47 | -32.0% | 62.7% | 169 | 3.0% |
| 2 | Net Volume ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.46 | -24.9% | 47.7% | 65 | 2.4% |
| 3 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.46 | -24.9% | 47.7% | 65 | 2.4% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.45 | -35.2% | 59.3% | 354 | 2.1% |
| 5 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.45 | -32.1% | 65.4% | 26 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.42 | -30.3% | 41.7% | 48 | 1.1% |
| 7 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.41 | -41.3% | 52.2% | 23 | 1.5% |
| 8 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.4 | -33.8% | 62.4% | 343 | 1.5% |
| 9 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.42 | -32.5% | 64.3% | 14 | 1.9% |
| 10 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.39 | -33.4% | 50.6% | 85 | 1.1% |
| 11 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.41 | -27.5% | 57.1% | 14 | 1.9% |
| 12 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.38 | -37.8% | 55.3% | 38 | 1.3% |
| 13 | TRIX (15) ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.38 | -26.9% | 50.0% | 18 | 1.4% |
| 14 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.38 | -27.3% | 62.5% | 16 | 1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Japan (EWJ)
0 of 673 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Japan (EWJ) outright. Another 252 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 261 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.43× | 3.33× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.52× | 3.52× |
| Chaikin Money Flow | — | 1.62× | 3.7× |
| G-Channel | — | 1.78× | 4.18× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.8× | 4.15× |
| KAMA 100 Trend | — | 1.81× | 4.22× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Japan (EWJ), MA Envelope on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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