The best indicator for Dow Jones (DIA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dow Jones (DIA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Dow Jones (DIA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
KAMA 200 Trend
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dow Jones (DIA) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR.
Dow Jones (DIA) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Dow Jones (DIA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.1% | 1.3 | -6.0% | 41.2% | 17 | -0.7% |
| 2 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.0% | 1.13 | -5.6% | 76.2% | 21 | -2.7% |
| 3 | RSI (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.3% | 1.11 | -6.1% | 57.1% | 21 | -2.4% |
| 4 | G-Channel ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.9% | 1.02 | -9.0% | 58.3% | 24 | -2.8% |
| 5 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.2% | 1.02 | -6.6% | 53.3% | 45 | -3.5% |
| 6 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.5% | 1.01 | -5.8% | 48.6% | 37 | -3.3% |
| 7 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.1% | 0.98 | -5.8% | 60.0% | 20 | -3.7% |
| 8 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.0% | 0.97 | -5.8% | 60.0% | 20 | -3.7% |
| 9 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.92 | -6.6% | 58.8% | 17 | -4.8% |
| 10 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.2% | 0.89 | -6.1% | 40.0% | 20 | -4.5% |
| 11 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.7% | 1.18 | -5.5% | 36.5% | 52 | -4.2% |
| 12 | VIDYA 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.1% | 0.84 | -8.3% | 40.9% | 22 | -4.6% |
| 13 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.5% | 0.84 | -6.0% | 50.0% | 22 | -5.2% |
| 14 | TRIX (15) ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.4% | 0.83 | -6.8% | 56.2% | 16 | -5.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Dow Jones (DIA)
4 of 1342 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Dow Jones (DIA) outright. Another 623 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 181 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 2.28× | 5.48× |
| WaveTrend (8/6/4) | 1 | 1.66× | 16.31× |
| SMC: Liquidity Sweep | 1 | 2.11× | 10.9× |
| Lorentzian Classification | 1 | none needed | 3.78× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 3.0× | 6.27× |
| Williams %R | — | 2.4× | 7.19× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Dow Jones (DIA), KAMA 200 Trend on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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