The best indicator for Dow Jones (DIA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dow Jones (DIA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 100 Trend
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dow Jones (DIA) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Dow Jones (DIA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.2% | 1.17 | -5.8% | 50.0% | 24 | -1.7% |
| 2 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.2% | 1.17 | -5.8% | 50.0% | 24 | -1.7% |
| 3 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.6% | 1.1 | -6.8% | 40.0% | 20 | -2.3% |
| 4 | RSI (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.5% | 1.05 | -6.1% | 44.4% | 27 | -2.4% |
| 5 | WMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.7% | 1.0 | -6.7% | 47.4% | 19 | -3.2% |
| 6 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.8% | 0.99 | -6.1% | 34.5% | 29 | -3.1% |
| 7 | Ichimoku Cloud ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.0% | 0.97 | -5.9% | 43.8% | 32 | -3.9% |
| 8 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.3% | 0.94 | -7.0% | 53.2% | 47 | -3.6% |
| 9 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 5.4% | 0.92 | -6.7% | 75.0% | 20 | -5.5% |
| 10 | Momentum (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.91 | -8.4% | 55.9% | 34 | -4.0% |
| 11 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | 4-Hour | 5.1% | 0.9 | -5.8% | 46.8% | 47 | -5.8% |
| 12 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.3% | 0.89 | -6.6% | 55.6% | 18 | -4.6% |
| 13 | Vegas Tunnel ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.5% | 0.88 | -6.8% | 50.0% | 16 | -4.4% |
| 14 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.5% | 0.88 | -5.8% | 47.8% | 23 | -4.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dow Jones (DIA), EMA 100 Trend on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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