The best indicator for Emerging Markets (VWO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Emerging Markets (VWO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Emerging Markets (VWO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
KAMA 10/30 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Emerging Markets (VWO) over ~21.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.4% CAGR.
Emerging Markets (VWO) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Emerging Markets (VWO) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.62 | -28.4% | 45.3% | 53 | 1.4% |
| 2 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.6 | -25.4% | 54.5% | 55 | 1.1% |
| 3 | ROC (14) ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.6 | -25.4% | 54.5% | 55 | 1.1% |
| 4 | CMO (14) ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.6 | -25.4% | 54.5% | 55 | 1.1% |
| 5 | Price Momentum Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.57 | -26.5% | 51.7% | 29 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.55 | -28.4% | 54.5% | 22 | 0.5% |
| 7 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.54 | -24.5% | 52.2% | 46 | -0.0% |
| 8 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.53 | -30.1% | 51.2% | 43 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.53 | -23.4% | 55.0% | 20 | 0.3% |
| 10 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.53 | -30.1% | 51.2% | 43 | 0.2% |
| 11 | Instantaneous Trendline ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.52 | -25.5% | 56.4% | 39 | -0.2% |
| 12 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.52 | -26.0% | 44.7% | 76 | -0.6% |
| 13 | EMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.51 | -24.7% | 35.3% | 34 | 0.3% |
| 14 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.51 | -38.6% | 46.3% | 41 | -0.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Emerging Markets (VWO)
5 of 627 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Emerging Markets (VWO) outright. Another 242 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 206 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Index | 1 | 2.83× | 3.52× |
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 3.73× |
| Ehlers Cyber Cycle | 1 | none needed | 3.31× |
| Adaptive Supertrend | 1 | none needed | 5.81× |
| Predictive Ranges | 1 | none needed | 4.11× |
| ALMA 10/30 Cross | — | 1.33× | 4.46× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Emerging Markets (VWO), KAMA 10/30 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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