The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
EMA 13/48 Cross
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.3% | 1.25 | -10.4% | 40.0% | 15 | -4.1% |
| 2 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.2% | 1.24 | -11.6% | 41.9% | 31 | -4.2% |
| 3 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.2% | 1.24 | -11.6% | 41.9% | 31 | -4.2% |
| 4 | RSI (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.8% | 1.18 | -11.6% | 41.9% | 31 | -4.6% |
| 5 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.6% | 1.17 | -11.1% | 58.2% | 79 | -9.8% |
| 6 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.1% | 1.16 | -12.2% | 44.4% | 27 | -5.3% |
| 7 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.6% | 1.12 | -11.6% | 44.9% | 107 | -7.8% |
| 8 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.0% | 1.11 | -14.3% | 48.6% | 37 | -7.4% |
| 9 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.86 | -27.3% | 80.0% | 20 | 2.1% |
| 10 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.9% | 1.1 | -15.1% | 46.7% | 15 | -5.5% |
| 11 | Bandpass Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.1% | 1.09 | -15.4% | 50.0% | 78 | -7.3% |
| 12 | Hull MA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.5% | 1.08 | -12.6% | 50.0% | 72 | -7.9% |
| 13 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 1.07 | -12.4% | 44.1% | 34 | -7.1% |
| 14 | SMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.1% | 1.07 | -10.0% | 36.7% | 30 | -7.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
4 of 1323 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) outright. Another 886 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 206 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| McGinley Dynamic | 1 | 2.1× | 4.34× |
| Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) | 1 | 1.48× | 4.7× |
| Zero-Lag LSMA | 1 | 2.03× | 4.12× |
| FRAMA 30 Trend | 1 | 4.12× | 4.21× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.1× | 4.68× |
| QQE | — | 1.48× | 3.77× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), EMA 13/48 Cross on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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