The best indicator for EAFE (EFA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real EAFE (EFA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where EAFE (EFA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
T3 20/80 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for EAFE (EFA) over ~25.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR.
EAFE (EFA) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for EAFE (EFA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T3 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.66 | -23.8% | 66.7% | 30 | 1.0% |
| 2 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.65 | -20.6% | 58.8% | 17 | 0.9% |
| 3 | Know Sure Thing ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.64 | -30.5% | 60.0% | 30 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.63 | -32.0% | 62.1% | 29 | -0.1% |
| 5 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.61 | -23.2% | 54.5% | 33 | 0.2% |
| 6 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.61 | -24.5% | 33.3% | 27 | 0.5% |
| 7 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.61 | -22.8% | 49.2% | 59 | -0.4% |
| 8 | Volume Flow Indicator ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.6 | -34.6% | 46.2% | 39 | 0.6% |
| 9 | VWMA vs Price ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.6 | -20.6% | 40.7% | 59 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.6 | -25.6% | 47.5% | 40 | 0.3% |
| 11 | WMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.6 | -23.1% | 46.3% | 54 | -0.3% |
| 12 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.6 | -23.6% | 46.2% | 26 | 0.9% |
| 13 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.59 | -24.8% | 37.5% | 48 | 0.4% |
| 14 | Hull Suite ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.59 | -25.6% | 58.3% | 24 | -0.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on EAFE (EFA)
0 of 638 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on EAFE (EFA) outright. Another 413 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 150 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.41× | 6.3× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | — | 2.5× | 11.05× |
| QQE | — | 1.2× | 3.45× |
| Premier Stochastic | — | 1.2× | 6.5× |
| SMA 5/20 Cross | — | 1.37× | 6.91× |
| Elastic VW MA | — | 1.41× | 5.35× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For EAFE (EFA), T3 20/80 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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