The best indicator for Wheat (ZW)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Wheat (ZW) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Wheat (ZW) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Detrended Price Osc.
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Wheat (ZW) over ~26.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 6.6% CAGR.
Wheat (ZW) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Wheat (ZW) — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.58 | -41.4% | 53.5% | 157 | 6.6% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.56 | -24.4% | 67.0% | 103 | 3.0% |
| 3 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.56 | -24.4% | 67.0% | 103 | 3.0% |
| 4 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.56 | -28.6% | 70.4% | 27 | 3.4% |
| 5 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.48 | -48.9% | 61.4% | 352 | 3.0% |
| 6 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.48 | -40.4% | 77.2% | 57 | 5.0% |
| 7 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.47 | -56.6% | 68.3% | 60 | 5.0% |
| 8 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.46 | -46.5% | 60.5% | 334 | 2.2% |
| 9 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.46 | -36.5% | 64.9% | 114 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.45 | -57.5% | 69.1% | 55 | 3.6% |
| 11 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.44 | -48.9% | 64.4% | 45 | 3.9% |
| 12 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.43 | -47.0% | 75.3% | 85 | 2.8% |
| 13 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.42 | -43.7% | 68.9% | 212 | 2.4% |
| 14 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.42 | -33.3% | 50.0% | 136 | 3.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Wheat (ZW)
78 of 666 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Wheat (ZW) outright. Another 19 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 20 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stochastic | 2 | none needed | 2.41× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 2 | none needed | 3.79× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 2.95× |
| Historical Volatility Regime | 2 | none needed | 4.45× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 2.23× |
| Projection Bands | 2 | none needed | 3.21× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Wheat (ZW), Detrended Price Osc. on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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