The best indicator for 10Y T-Note (ZN)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 10Y T-Note (ZN) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where 10Y T-Note (ZN) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner Mean-Reversion
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 10Y T-Note (ZN) over ~25.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
10Y T-Note (ZN) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 10Y T-Note (ZN) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.28 | -11.7% | 78.9% | 19 | 0.3% |
| 2 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 0.6% | 0.25 | -10.7% | 75.0% | 16 | 0.2% |
| 3 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 0.5% | 0.15 | -10.1% | 50.0% | 20 | 0.1% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.22 | -4.1% | 70.0% | 10 | -0.1% |
| 5 | Volume Oscillator | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.14 | -13.4% | 47.2% | 89 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Order-Flow Reversion | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.14 | -15.6% | 61.9% | 21 | -0.0% |
| 7 | Stochastic | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.13 | -21.8% | 69.0% | 29 | 0.1% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.13 | -24.0% | 65.2% | 23 | 0.1% |
| 9 | Intraday Momentum Index | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.14 | -26.2% | 61.5% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.12 | -18.9% | 60.0% | 25 | -0.0% |
| 11 | Fibonacci Bands | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.12 | -18.9% | 60.0% | 25 | -0.0% |
| 12 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.11 | -16.0% | 38.1% | 21 | 0.1% |
| 13 | Positive Volume Index | Daily | 0.3% | 0.1 | -17.9% | 32.4% | 68 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Laguerre RSI | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.1 | -12.0% | 67.5% | 40 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on 10Y T-Note (ZN) lost money across the out-of-sample window in 624 of 624 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For 10Y T-Note (ZN), Keltner Mean-Reversion on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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