The best indicator for Copper (HG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Copper (HG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Copper (HG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Ehlers Roofing Filter
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Copper (HG) over ~8.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
Copper (HG) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Copper (HG) — trailing buy-and-hold by 9.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.5% | 0.85 | -14.3% | 54.8% | 62 | 2.2% |
| 2 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | 4-Hour | 4.4% | 0.65 | -18.0% | 40.2% | 132 | -1.9% |
| 3 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 4-Hour | 3.0% | 0.64 | -7.0% | 85.0% | 20 | -3.3% |
| 4 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.4% | 0.63 | -14.0% | 56.1% | 41 | 0.1% |
| 5 | Advance Trend Pressure ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.62 | -44.1% | 45.5% | 66 | 2.5% |
| 6 | TRIX ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.6 | -36.5% | 48.3% | 29 | 1.5% |
| 7 | T3 15/60 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.0% | 0.6 | -11.8% | 59.3% | 27 | -0.3% |
| 8 | Aroon ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.59 | -39.0% | 47.6% | 42 | 1.6% |
| 9 | True Strength Index ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.59 | -39.1% | 44.6% | 56 | 1.6% |
| 10 | Accelerator Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.59 | -43.6% | 42.3% | 78 | 1.8% |
| 11 | MACD-V ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.59 | -38.5% | 44.2% | 52 | 1.6% |
| 12 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.59 | -39.0% | 47.6% | 42 | 1.6% |
| 13 | TRIX (21) ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.58 | -36.5% | 38.3% | 47 | 2.2% |
| 14 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.58 | -41.7% | 44.2% | 52 | 1.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Copper (HG)
3 of 1407 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Copper (HG) outright. Another 375 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 329 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime | 1 | 1.39× | 4.59× |
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | 3.23× | 5.92× |
| Accelerator Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.7× |
| Ichimoku TK Cross | — | 1.79× | 5.89× |
| Ehlers TrendFlex | — | 2.42× | 4.84× |
| WMA 10/30 Cross | — | 2.87× | 5.39× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Copper (HG), Ehlers Roofing Filter on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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