The best indicator for Total US Market (VTI)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Total US Market (VTI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Total US Market (VTI) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Predictive Ranges
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Total US Market (VTI) over ~25.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
Total US Market (VTI) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Total US Market (VTI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.84 | -21.6% | 50.9% | 55 | 0.2% |
| 2 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.81 | -21.3% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.7% |
| 3 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.79 | -22.9% | 64.3% | 28 | -0.7% |
| 4 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.78 | -20.3% | 55.0% | 40 | -0.5% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.77 | -22.6% | 51.1% | 45 | -1.2% |
| 6 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.77 | -21.8% | 50.0% | 48 | -1.3% |
| 7 | MA Ribbon ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.76 | -17.8% | 66.7% | 24 | -2.4% |
| 8 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.76 | -25.8% | 70.6% | 17 | -1.2% |
| 9 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.76 | -23.3% | 56.0% | 25 | -0.8% |
| 10 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.76 | -22.0% | 76.5% | 17 | -1.6% |
| 11 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.75 | -21.5% | 51.7% | 60 | -1.5% |
| 12 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.75 | -21.4% | 59.5% | 42 | -1.3% |
| 13 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.75 | -33.9% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.1% |
| 14 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.75 | -21.2% | 53.3% | 45 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Total US Market (VTI)
1 of 621 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Total US Market (VTI) outright. Another 489 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 91 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | 2.48× | 3.34× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.67× | 5.06× |
| Rate of Change | — | 1.28× | 4.94× |
| ROC (20) | — | 1.28× | 6.84× |
| Momentum (20) | — | 1.28× | 6.84× |
| Williams %R (21) | — | 1.34× | 4.14× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Total US Market (VTI), Predictive Ranges on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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