The best indicator for Total US Market (VTI)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Total US Market (VTI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Predictive Ranges
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Total US Market (VTI) over ~25.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Total US Market (VTI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.84 | -21.6% | 50.9% | 55 | 0.2% |
| 2 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.81 | -21.3% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.7% |
| 3 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.79 | -22.9% | 64.3% | 28 | -0.7% |
| 4 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.78 | -20.3% | 55.0% | 40 | -0.5% |
| 5 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.77 | -22.6% | 51.1% | 45 | -1.2% |
| 6 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.77 | -21.8% | 50.0% | 48 | -1.3% |
| 7 | MA Ribbon ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.76 | -17.8% | 66.7% | 24 | -2.4% |
| 8 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.76 | -25.8% | 70.6% | 17 | -1.2% |
| 9 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.76 | -23.3% | 56.0% | 25 | -0.8% |
| 10 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.76 | -22.0% | 76.5% | 17 | -1.6% |
| 11 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.75 | -21.5% | 51.7% | 60 | -1.5% |
| 12 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.75 | -21.4% | 59.5% | 42 | -1.3% |
| 13 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.75 | -33.9% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.1% |
| 14 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.75 | -21.2% | 53.3% | 45 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Total US Market (VTI), Predictive Ranges on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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