The best indicator for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Predictive Ranges
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) over ~15.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR.
Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 1.0 | -19.2% | 63.2% | 38 | -3.9% |
| 2 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 11.7% | 0.98 | -19.3% | 59.3% | 27 | -3.1% |
| 3 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 11.2% | 0.98 | -19.5% | 80.0% | 15 | -3.6% |
| 4 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 11.7% | 0.98 | -19.3% | 59.3% | 27 | -3.1% |
| 5 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.96 | -22.4% | 68.2% | 22 | -3.6% |
| 6 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.93 | -16.9% | 59.1% | 22 | -3.8% |
| 7 | Instantaneous Trendline ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.91 | -20.8% | 60.7% | 28 | -4.6% |
| 8 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.91 | -21.7% | 63.0% | 27 | -3.9% |
| 9 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.91 | -23.9% | 50.0% | 88 | -4.4% |
| 10 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.89 | -20.4% | 58.3% | 24 | -4.3% |
| 11 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.89 | -25.4% | 69.0% | 29 | -4.1% |
| 12 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.89 | -18.9% | 62.1% | 29 | -4.4% |
| 13 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.88 | -21.5% | 65.5% | 29 | -4.6% |
| 14 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.88 | -23.4% | 60.0% | 15 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO)
1 of 550 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) outright. Another 388 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 99 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive Ranges | 1 | 2.98× | 4.52× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.48× | 4.97× |
| ROC (20) | — | 1.3× | 7.24× |
| Momentum (20) | — | 1.3× | 7.24× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.42× | 6.14× |
| Rate of Change | — | 1.45× | 5.88× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO), Predictive Ranges on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More index etf
Get alerted when Vanguard S&P 500’s signal flips
We track Vanguard S&P 500 daily. Its backtested best indicator, Predictive Ranges (Weekly), is long right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.