The best indicator for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Chaikin Oscillator
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) over ~16.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.99 | -19.3% | 60.7% | 28 | -3.1% |
| 2 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.99 | -19.3% | 60.7% | 28 | -3.1% |
| 3 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.98 | -20.1% | 63.2% | 38 | -4.3% |
| 4 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.97 | -19.5% | 73.3% | 15 | -3.8% |
| 5 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.96 | -22.4% | 68.2% | 22 | -3.6% |
| 6 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.94 | -16.9% | 59.1% | 22 | -3.8% |
| 7 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 11.0% | 0.92 | -22.8% | 63.0% | 27 | -3.8% |
| 8 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 10.6% | 0.91 | -23.9% | 50.0% | 88 | -4.3% |
| 9 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.91 | -20.4% | 58.3% | 24 | -4.2% |
| 10 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.9 | -19.7% | 61.1% | 72 | -6.7% |
| 11 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.89 | -18.9% | 66.7% | 30 | -4.6% |
| 12 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.89 | -23.4% | 60.0% | 15 | -4.0% |
| 13 | MA Ribbon ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.88 | -18.1% | 80.0% | 15 | -5.7% |
| 14 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.88 | -25.9% | 61.3% | 31 | -4.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO)
1 of 550 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) outright. Another 388 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 99 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive Ranges | 1 | 2.98× | 4.52× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.48× | 4.97× |
| ROC (20) | — | 1.3× | 7.24× |
| Momentum (20) | — | 1.3× | 7.24× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.42× | 6.14× |
| Rate of Change | — | 1.45× | 5.88× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO), Chaikin Oscillator on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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