The best indicator for USD/ZAR
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/ZAR history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where USD/ZAR stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/ZAR over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 10.3% CAGR.
USD/ZAR on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/ZAR — beating buy-and-hold by 7.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 14.5% | 1.14 | -40.0% | 37.9% | 591 | 10.3% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 12.1% | 0.95 | -48.3% | 36.5% | 452 | 7.9% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.75 | -35.1% | 29.7% | 296 | 5.8% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 9.1% | 0.7 | -42.6% | 38.4% | 401 | 4.9% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.67 | -33.4% | 35.8% | 288 | 4.2% |
| 6 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.65 | -18.5% | 44.9% | 1186 | 2.9% |
| 7 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.61 | -18.9% | 72.8% | 81 | 1.4% |
| 8 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.56 | -41.9% | 33.3% | 285 | 2.8% |
| 9 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.56 | -15.4% | 54.4% | 57 | 1.4% |
| 10 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.55 | -17.2% | 67.0% | 97 | 0.9% |
| 11 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.55 | -22.8% | 68.1% | 72 | 1.4% |
| 12 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.55 | -25.8% | 58.4% | 219 | 1.7% |
| 13 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.55 | -17.2% | 67.0% | 97 | 0.9% |
| 14 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.55 | -40.3% | 34.8% | 465 | 2.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/ZAR
50 of 588 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/ZAR outright. Another 16 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 13 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 2 | none needed | 4.98× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 2 | none needed | 6.92× |
| Connors RSI | 2 | none needed | 4.46× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 7.26× |
| Pivot Points (Standard) | 2 | none needed | 7.18× |
| Fibonacci Pivots | 2 | none needed | 6.09× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/ZAR, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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