The best indicator for AUD/USD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real AUD/USD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where AUD/USD stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DMI Direction
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for AUD/USD over ~21.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 8.9% CAGR.
AUD/USD on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for AUD/USD — beating buy-and-hold by 6.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 1.12 | -11.1% | 28.2% | 259 | 8.9% |
| 2 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 1.08 | -21.7% | 38.9% | 527 | 9.1% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.97 | -28.6% | 38.7% | 398 | 8.1% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.77 | -30.0% | 34.4% | 387 | 6.2% |
| 5 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.71 | -14.5% | 35.4% | 441 | 5.2% |
| 6 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 0.66 | -11.3% | 29.9% | 221 | 5.3% |
| 7 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.65 | -32.7% | 38.1% | 257 | 5.4% |
| 8 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.61 | -28.3% | 36.4% | 272 | 5.0% |
| 9 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.58 | -15.1% | 33.8% | 139 | 3.6% |
| 10 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.57 | -28.6% | 33.2% | 380 | 4.7% |
| 11 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.57 | -22.2% | 41.1% | 263 | 4.7% |
| 12 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.52 | -18.0% | 32.2% | 118 | 3.3% |
| 13 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.46 | -21.2% | 35.1% | 265 | 3.8% |
| 14 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.45 | -8.8% | 32.8% | 287 | 2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on AUD/USD
50 of 1264 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on AUD/USD outright. Another 76 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 23 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarker (21) | 1 | 1.11× | 8.75× |
| Projection Bands | 1 | 1.11× | 8.36× |
| Murrey Math Lines | 1 | 1.61× | 21.74× |
| Woodies CCI | 1 | 1.67× | 6.54× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 1 | 3.0× | 11.17× |
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 1 | 3.22× | 7.94× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For AUD/USD, DMI Direction on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More forex
Get alerted when AUD/USD’s signal flips
We track AUD/USD daily. Its backtested best indicator, DMI Direction (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.