The best indicator for AUD/NZD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real AUD/NZD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where AUD/NZD stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DMI Direction
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for AUD/NZD over ~23.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR.
AUD/NZD on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for AUD/NZD — beating buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.98 | -6.9% | 30.8% | 247 | 4.1% |
| 2 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.75 | -12.7% | 29.2% | 428 | 3.1% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.7 | -11.9% | 36.5% | 296 | 2.9% |
| 4 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.66 | -20.5% | 34.9% | 458 | 2.7% |
| 5 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 3.1% | 0.65 | -23.7% | 34.5% | 592 | 2.7% |
| 6 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.62 | -7.9% | 33.3% | 162 | 2.0% |
| 7 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.6 | -7.1% | 35.3% | 283 | 1.5% |
| 8 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.56 | -14.6% | 31.2% | 432 | 2.2% |
| 9 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 2.0% | 0.54 | -8.4% | 35.2% | 145 | 1.6% |
| 10 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.53 | -9.8% | 29.3% | 270 | 2.0% |
| 11 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.53 | -9.8% | 32.5% | 228 | 2.0% |
| 12 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.52 | -14.1% | 34.7% | 453 | 1.8% |
| 13 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 2.3% | 0.5 | -10.8% | 30.2% | 341 | 1.9% |
| 14 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 2.2% | 0.49 | -11.1% | 32.2% | 295 | 1.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on AUD/NZD
25 of 593 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on AUD/NZD outright. Another 122 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 27 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroon | 1 | 1.67× | 17.56× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 1 | 1.67× | 17.56× |
| Vortex | 1 | 5.0× | 12.93× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 5.0× | 13.62× |
| Random Walk Index | 1 | 5.0× | 13.62× |
| SMC: Fair Value Gap | 1 | 6.67× | 15.07× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For AUD/NZD, DMI Direction on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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