The best indicator for USD/KRW
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/KRW history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where USD/KRW stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/KRW over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
USD/KRW on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/KRW — beating buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | Daily | 4.8% | 1.01 | -7.6% | 43.3% | 60 | 3.6% |
| 2 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.88 | -18.6% | 49.1% | 220 | 5.5% |
| 3 | Fibonacci Pivots | Daily | 7.1% | 0.83 | -32.4% | 41.9% | 971 | 6.0% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.78 | -11.5% | 54.7% | 287 | 5.1% |
| 5 | Pivot Points (Standard) | Daily | 5.8% | 0.7 | -31.5% | 42.9% | 885 | 4.7% |
| 6 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.68 | -17.9% | 27.9% | 201 | 4.3% |
| 7 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.67 | -27.9% | 38.8% | 1159 | 4.7% |
| 8 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.62 | -15.5% | 52.7% | 277 | 3.7% |
| 9 | MA Envelope | Daily | 3.8% | 0.6 | -14.1% | 48.0% | 50 | 2.7% |
| 10 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 1653.9% | 0.56 | -18.1% | 65.6% | 32 | 1652.7% |
| 11 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 1136.9% | 0.56 | -100.0% | 45.3% | 170 | 1135.7% |
| 12 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 1133.1% | 0.56 | -100.0% | 47.5% | 183 | 1131.8% |
| 13 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 1058.9% | 0.56 | -100.0% | 62.5% | 40 | 1057.7% |
| 14 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Weekly | 1667.2% | 0.56 | -25.3% | 71.4% | 14 | 1665.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/KRW
27 of 450 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/KRW outright. Another 191 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 46 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarker (7) | 1 | 1.2× | 10.46× |
| Aroon | 1 | 1.31× | 8.43× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 1 | 1.31× | 8.43× |
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | 1.35× | 14.37× |
| Vortex (7) | 1 | 1.62× | 11.88× |
| DeMarker (14) | 1 | 1.62× | 10.73× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/KRW, Nadaraya-Watson Envelope on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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