The best indicator for USD/KRW
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/KRW history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/KRW stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/KRW over ~23.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.2% CAGR.
USD/KRW on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/KRW — beating buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 1.0 | -7.6% | 43.3% | 60 | 4.2% |
| 2 | Fibonacci Pivots | Daily | 6.9% | 0.81 | -32.4% | 41.4% | 987 | 6.4% |
| 3 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.81 | -18.6% | 48.9% | 221 | 5.5% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.71 | -12.5% | 54.5% | 290 | 5.1% |
| 5 | Pivot Points (Standard) | Daily | 5.6% | 0.68 | -31.5% | 42.4% | 900 | 5.1% |
| 6 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.66 | -17.9% | 27.6% | 203 | 4.7% |
| 7 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.63 | -28.1% | 38.5% | 1178 | 4.9% |
| 8 | MA Envelope | Daily | 3.6% | 0.56 | -16.7% | 47.1% | 51 | 3.0% |
| 9 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.55 | -15.5% | 52.5% | 280 | 3.7% |
| 10 | MA Envelope | Weekly | 1579.0% | 0.55 | -18.1% | 63.6% | 33 | 1578.4% |
| 11 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 1089.6% | 0.55 | -100.0% | 44.5% | 173 | 1089.1% |
| 12 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 1085.0% | 0.55 | -100.0% | 46.8% | 186 | 1084.4% |
| 13 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Weekly | 1594.6% | 0.55 | -25.3% | 66.7% | 15 | 1594.0% |
| 14 | Projection Bands | Weekly | 1015.5% | 0.55 | -100.0% | 61.0% | 41 | 1014.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/KRW
27 of 450 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/KRW outright. Another 191 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 46 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarker (7) | 1 | 1.2× | 10.46× |
| Aroon | 1 | 1.31× | 8.43× |
| Aroon Oscillator | 1 | 1.31× | 8.43× |
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | 1.35× | 14.37× |
| Vortex (7) | 1 | 1.62× | 11.88× |
| DeMarker (14) | 1 | 1.62× | 10.73× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/KRW, Nadaraya-Watson Envelope on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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