The best indicator for Official Trump (TRUMP)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Official Trump (TRUMP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MA Envelope
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Official Trump (TRUMP) over ~7.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 169.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Official Trump (TRUMP) — trailing buy-and-hold by 21.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 123.7% | 1.16 | -99.9% | 46.9% | 32 | 169.5% |
| 2 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 331.2% | 1.1 | -91.1% | 56.3% | 119 | 367.8% |
| 3 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Daily | -44.8% | 1.09 | -100.0% | 41.8% | 67 | -8.1% |
| 4 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 334.8% | 1.09 | -93.4% | 58.3% | 115 | 371.5% |
| 5 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 128.2% | 1.05 | -99.5% | 52.3% | 130 | 164.8% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | -6.8% | 1.03 | -99.8% | 65.0% | 40 | 29.8% |
| 7 | Positive Volume Index ✓ | Daily | -62.5% | 1.02 | -100.0% | 37.5% | 16 | -25.9% |
| 8 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 161.9% | 1.01 | -83.8% | 50.8% | 59 | 207.6% |
| 9 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 11.7% | 0.99 | -99.6% | 51.4% | 37 | 48.4% |
| 10 | Volume Flow Indicator ✓ | Daily | -33.3% | 0.97 | -99.7% | 33.3% | 33 | 3.3% |
| 11 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 1536.7% | 0.97 | -95.7% | 53.3% | 199 | 1573.4% |
| 12 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Daily | 68.7% | 0.96 | -100.0% | 43.0% | 449 | 105.3% |
| 13 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 1012.4% | 0.93 | -98.4% | 56.1% | 114 | 1049.0% |
| 14 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 264.1% | 0.9 | -98.6% | 58.3% | 36 | 300.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Official Trump (TRUMP), MA Envelope on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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