The best indicator for S&P 500 (SPY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 (SPY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
CCI (100)
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 (SPY) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 (SPY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.0% | 1.32 | -9.3% | 38.1% | 21 | -2.6% |
| 2 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.3% | 1.27 | -7.5% | 47.2% | 36 | -3.3% |
| 3 | Momentum (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.0% | 1.24 | -9.8% | 47.1% | 34 | -3.6% |
| 4 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.3% | 1.23 | -9.2% | 40.0% | 15 | -3.3% |
| 5 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.9% | 1.22 | -8.7% | 35.0% | 20 | -3.7% |
| 6 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.4% | 1.22 | -10.5% | 48.0% | 25 | -3.2% |
| 7 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.4% | 1.22 | -10.5% | 48.0% | 25 | -3.2% |
| 8 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.6% | 1.21 | -9.2% | 35.3% | 34 | -4.0% |
| 9 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 1.29 | -7.4% | 42.9% | 14 | -2.7% |
| 10 | RSI (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.4% | 1.2 | -10.5% | 42.9% | 28 | -3.2% |
| 11 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.5% | 1.19 | -10.5% | 41.2% | 17 | -4.0% |
| 12 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.4% | 1.17 | -8.2% | 50.0% | 16 | -3.1% |
| 13 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 1.16 | -9.9% | 40.9% | 22 | -2.7% |
| 14 | CCI (200) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.1% | 1.16 | -8.4% | 43.8% | 16 | -3.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P 500 (SPY), CCI (100) on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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