The best indicator for S&P 500 (SPY)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 (SPY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
McGinley 100 Trend
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 (SPY) over ~2.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 (SPY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.0% | 1.42 | -11.5% | 32.8% | 64 | -5.6% |
| 2 | CCI (200) ✓ | 1-Hour | 13.2% | 1.41 | -9.6% | 30.2% | 43 | -6.4% |
| 3 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.81 | -24.8% | 72.7% | 22 | -1.4% |
| 4 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.8 | -23.3% | 66.7% | 24 | -1.1% |
| 5 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.8 | -33.0% | 60.0% | 25 | -1.4% |
| 6 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.8 | -23.3% | 59.1% | 22 | -0.8% |
| 7 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.78 | -32.2% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.4% |
| 8 | CCI (100) ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.78 | -25.8% | 44.4% | 18 | -1.1% |
| 9 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.77 | -21.4% | 59.2% | 49 | -1.9% |
| 10 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.77 | -22.1% | 63.2% | 38 | -1.9% |
| 11 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.76 | -24.8% | 75.8% | 33 | -2.2% |
| 12 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.76 | -44.0% | 57.6% | 59 | -2.0% |
| 13 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.76 | -21.1% | 53.3% | 30 | -1.9% |
| 14 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.76 | -24.1% | 63.0% | 27 | -1.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P 500 (SPY), McGinley 100 Trend on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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