The best indicator for Palladium (PA)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Palladium (PA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Palladium (PA) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Positive Volume Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Palladium (PA) over ~25.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 6.5% CAGR.
Palladium (PA) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Palladium (PA) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Positive Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 12.4% | 0.55 | -54.9% | 45.7% | 46 | 6.5% |
| 2 | CCI (50) ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.51 | -67.7% | 35.6% | 194 | 5.4% |
| 3 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.5 | -66.3% | 53.3% | 15 | 5.4% |
| 4 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.5 | -65.6% | 46.1% | 705 | 5.1% |
| 5 | Least Squares MA ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.49 | -70.4% | 45.5% | 508 | 5.1% |
| 6 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 10.7% | 0.49 | -60.2% | 50.0% | 24 | 4.9% |
| 7 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.49 | -59.2% | 70.0% | 20 | 5.3% |
| 8 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.48 | -51.7% | 55.6% | 27 | 4.2% |
| 9 | MA Ribbon ✓ | Daily | 9.2% | 0.47 | -57.9% | 38.6% | 101 | 3.3% |
| 10 | KDJ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.47 | -70.3% | 46.1% | 633 | 3.9% |
| 11 | SMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.46 | -67.7% | 38.2% | 272 | 3.6% |
| 12 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.46 | -69.3% | 34.2% | 161 | 3.5% |
| 13 | WMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.46 | -62.0% | 60.0% | 15 | 4.0% |
| 14 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -54.7% | 48.1% | 27 | 4.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Palladium (PA)
71 of 621 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Palladium (PA) outright. Another 20 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 60 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI-2 | 2 | none needed | 2.95× |
| Accumulation/Distribution | 2 | none needed | 1.96× |
| HalfTrend | 2 | none needed | 1.5× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 2.27× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 1.95× |
| Projection Bands | 2 | none needed | 2.29× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Palladium (PA), Positive Volume Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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