The best indicator for Natural Gas (NG)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (NG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (NG) over ~7.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 10.1% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Natural Gas (NG) — beating buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.6% | 0.78 | -14.6% | 52.9% | 85 | 10.1% |
| 2 | MA Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.5% | 0.59 | -40.3% | 53.4% | 161 | 12.0% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.0% | 0.56 | -37.7% | 62.9% | 197 | 13.5% |
| 4 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.9% | 0.48 | -29.4% | 68.0% | 103 | 7.4% |
| 5 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.8% | 0.43 | -40.3% | 60.3% | 136 | 8.3% |
| 6 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.1% | 0.42 | -27.2% | 43.5% | 237 | 5.7% |
| 7 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.1% | 0.41 | -38.5% | 51.4% | 282 | 6.6% |
| 8 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.4 | -63.7% | 68.5% | 89 | 10.1% |
| 9 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.4 | -74.7% | 50.3% | 1383 | 9.9% |
| 10 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.2% | 0.4 | -44.0% | 42.4% | 33 | 7.7% |
| 11 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.39 | -66.8% | 60.5% | 190 | 9.6% |
| 12 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.39 | -73.2% | 52.0% | 1061 | 9.7% |
| 13 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.38 | -64.0% | 52.1% | 981 | 9.4% |
| 14 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.37 | -26.5% | 66.7% | 18 | 5.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Natural Gas (NG), Nadaraya-Watson Envelope on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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