The best indicator for Natural Gas (NG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (NG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Natural Gas (NG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (NG) over ~7.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.3% CAGR.
Natural Gas (NG) on the 1-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Natural Gas (NG) — beating buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.4% | 0.93 | -11.0% | 50.0% | 88 | 7.3% |
| 2 | MA Envelope | 1-Hour | 16.7% | 0.8 | -35.9% | 55.2% | 143 | 12.6% |
| 3 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.2% | 0.78 | -24.6% | 66.4% | 110 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.2% | 0.71 | -23.0% | 69.7% | 76 | 10.4% |
| 5 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | 1-Hour | 15.9% | 0.7 | -29.4% | 62.3% | 146 | 11.8% |
| 6 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.1% | 0.67 | -24.0% | 62.2% | 185 | 8.3% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.2% | 0.65 | -29.8% | 62.7% | 59 | 10.4% |
| 8 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.7% | 0.64 | -22.7% | 66.7% | 69 | 7.0% |
| 9 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.1% | 0.54 | -36.4% | 62.9% | 194 | 8.0% |
| 10 | Demand Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 0.53 | -26.4% | 58.0% | 131 | 7.1% |
| 11 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.0% | 0.53 | -33.3% | 73.1% | 52 | 7.2% |
| 12 | Keltner 10 (x1.5) ✓ | 4-Hour | 5.5% | 0.51 | -16.1% | 43.3% | 90 | 1.7% |
| 13 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.4% | 0.5 | -29.1% | 69.1% | 97 | 3.3% |
| 14 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.4% | 0.48 | -36.7% | 51.4% | 280 | 4.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Natural Gas (NG)
207 of 1402 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Natural Gas (NG) outright. Another 21 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 32 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laguerre RSI | 4 | none needed | 2.79× |
| MA Envelope | 4 | none needed | 2.01× |
| Projection Bands | 4 | none needed | 1.81× |
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 3 | none needed | 3.31× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 3 | none needed | 2.19× |
| DeMarker | 3 | none needed | 4.1× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Natural Gas (NG), Nadaraya-Watson Envelope on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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