The best indicator for Natural Gas (NG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (NG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Laguerre RSI
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (NG) over ~8.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 18.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Natural Gas (NG) — beating buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | 4-Hour | 19.1% | 0.97 | -24.6% | 63.8% | 105 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.6% | 0.78 | -14.6% | 52.9% | 85 | 10.1% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 17.1% | 0.67 | -30.9% | 61.4% | 57 | 16.7% |
| 4 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 15.6% | 0.67 | -28.5% | 68.5% | 73 | 15.2% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.5% | 0.59 | -40.3% | 53.4% | 161 | 12.0% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.0% | 0.57 | -29.5% | 63.2% | 125 | 12.5% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.0% | 0.56 | -37.7% | 62.9% | 197 | 13.5% |
| 8 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 0.55 | -25.0% | 66.7% | 63 | 10.4% |
| 9 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.8% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 63.0% | 54 | 11.4% |
| 10 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 0.49 | -42.3% | 68.8% | 48 | 10.9% |
| 11 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.9% | 0.48 | -29.4% | 68.0% | 103 | 7.4% |
| 12 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.0% | 0.45 | -36.2% | 60.8% | 189 | 7.5% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.1% | 0.44 | -38.3% | 66.2% | 68 | 8.6% |
| 14 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.8% | 0.43 | -40.3% | 60.3% | 136 | 8.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Natural Gas (NG), Laguerre RSI on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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