The best indicator for Natural Gas (NG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (NG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Natural Gas (NG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Laguerre RSI
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (NG) over ~8.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 18.6% CAGR.
Natural Gas (NG) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Natural Gas (NG) — beating buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | 4-Hour | 19.1% | 0.97 | -24.6% | 63.8% | 105 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.6% | 0.78 | -14.6% | 52.9% | 85 | 10.1% |
| 3 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 17.1% | 0.67 | -30.9% | 61.4% | 57 | 16.7% |
| 4 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 15.6% | 0.67 | -28.5% | 68.5% | 73 | 15.2% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.5% | 0.59 | -40.3% | 53.4% | 161 | 12.0% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.0% | 0.57 | -29.5% | 63.2% | 125 | 12.5% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 1-Hour | 14.0% | 0.56 | -37.7% | 62.9% | 197 | 13.5% |
| 8 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 0.55 | -25.0% | 66.7% | 63 | 10.4% |
| 9 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.8% | 0.53 | -37.4% | 63.0% | 54 | 11.4% |
| 10 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 0.49 | -42.3% | 68.8% | 48 | 10.9% |
| 11 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.9% | 0.48 | -29.4% | 68.0% | 103 | 7.4% |
| 12 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.0% | 0.45 | -36.2% | 60.8% | 189 | 7.5% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.1% | 0.44 | -38.3% | 66.2% | 68 | 8.6% |
| 14 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | 1-Hour | 8.8% | 0.43 | -40.3% | 60.3% | 136 | 8.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Natural Gas (NG)
207 of 1402 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Natural Gas (NG) outright. Another 21 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 32 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laguerre RSI | 4 | none needed | 2.79× |
| MA Envelope | 4 | none needed | 2.01× |
| Projection Bands | 4 | none needed | 1.81× |
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 3 | none needed | 3.31× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 3 | none needed | 2.19× |
| DeMarker | 3 | none needed | 4.1× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Natural Gas (NG), Laguerre RSI on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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