The best indicator for Russell 2000 (IWM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Russell 2000 (IWM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Russell 2000 (IWM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
SMC: Change of Character
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Russell 2000 (IWM) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.3% CAGR.
Russell 2000 (IWM) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Russell 2000 (IWM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 0.93 | -10.2% | 66.7% | 18 | -3.3% |
| 2 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.7% | 0.8 | -15.8% | 45.0% | 20 | -2.9% |
| 3 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.59 | -29.9% | 89.7% | 29 | -1.8% |
| 4 | VWAP Bands ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.4% | 0.98 | -12.4% | 63.2% | 87 | -8.6% |
| 5 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.56 | -47.2% | 65.1% | 324 | -1.0% |
| 6 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.8% | 0.71 | -13.4% | 44.4% | 18 | -5.7% |
| 7 | TRIX ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.3% | 0.7 | -14.4% | 45.2% | 42 | -7.3% |
| 8 | Waddah Attar Explosion ✓ | 4-Hour | 4.4% | 0.69 | -9.1% | 36.1% | 72 | -10.2% |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.7% | 0.92 | -13.7% | 68.4% | 98 | -9.3% |
| 10 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.7% | 0.92 | -13.7% | 68.4% | 98 | -9.3% |
| 11 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.2% | 0.68 | -12.6% | 66.7% | 18 | -7.3% |
| 12 | CCI Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.7% | 0.67 | -11.0% | 33.8% | 80 | -6.8% |
| 13 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.8% | 0.67 | -13.0% | 43.5% | 46 | -6.8% |
| 14 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.9% | 0.9 | -13.9% | 70.2% | 84 | -10.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Russell 2000 (IWM)
10 of 1361 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Russell 2000 (IWM) outright. Another 432 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 307 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | 4.04× | 3.95× |
| QQE | 1 | 1.74× | 4.33× |
| DeMarker (21) | 1 | 1.5× | 4.31× |
| Connors RSI | 1 | 1.63× | 6.21× |
| Relative Volatility Index | 1 | 2.01× | 4.58× |
| Chaikin Oscillator | 1 | 3.4× | 5.08× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Russell 2000 (IWM), SMC: Change of Character on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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