Index ETF

The best indicator for Russell 2000 (IWM)

We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Russell 2000 (IWM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.

Signaling FLAT right now — CCI (Weekly) is out of the market, as of 2026-06-08.

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Oscillator · Weekly

CCI

On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Russell 2000 (IWM) over ~26.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR.

7.0%

CAGR

0.6

Sharpe

-29.9%

Max DD

89.7%

Win rate

8.8

Profit factor

-1.6%

vs Buy&Hold

Confluence · Weekly

Best multi-indicator combo

StochasticQQE

Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Russell 2000 (IWM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.

3.6%

CAGR

0.33

Sharpe

54.3%

Win rate

Trades

-5.0%

vs Buy&Hold

Best by timeframe

The winner on each chart

Weekly

CCI

-1.6% · Sharpe 0.6

Daily

Connors RSI

-1.0% · Sharpe 0.57

1-Hour

Markov Regime

+2.0% · Sharpe 0.86

Full results

Every indicator, ranked

Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.

#	Indicator	TF	CAGR	Sharpe	Max DD	Win	Trades	vs B&H
1	CCI ✓	Weekly	7.0%	0.6	-29.9%	89.7%	29	-1.6%
2	Connors RSI ✓	Daily	7.6%	0.57	-47.2%	65.4%	321	-1.0%
3	Markov Regime ✓	1-Hour	16.8%	0.86	-29.4%	60.6%	33	2.0%
4	McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓	Daily	6.9%	0.49	-38.7%	42.0%	50	-1.8%
5	Supertrend (10,3) ✓	Weekly	6.3%	0.48	-29.1%	52.9%	17	-2.3%
6	Trend Magic ✓	Weekly	6.4%	0.48	-33.1%	53.3%	75	-2.2%
7	QQE ✓	Weekly	8.0%	0.48	-56.8%	50.0%	76	-0.6%
8	McGinley 30 Trend ✓	Weekly	7.3%	0.48	-47.4%	41.9%	31	-1.3%
9	Smoothed Heikin-Ashi ✓	Weekly	6.0%	0.47	-24.7%	55.6%	90	-2.6%
10	Bollinger %B ✓	Weekly	6.0%	0.47	-27.3%	45.1%	71	-2.6%
11	Three White Soldiers ✓	Weekly	4.7%	0.47	-21.2%	58.1%	74	-3.9%
12	Linear Regression Slope ✓	Daily	6.0%	0.46	-28.2%	50.0%	154	-2.7%
13	Correlation Trend ✓	Daily	6.0%	0.46	-28.2%	50.0%	154	-2.7%
14	EMA 10/40 Cross ✓	Daily	6.0%	0.46	-26.7%	49.4%	89	-2.7%

✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.

What this means

For Russell 2000 (IWM), CCI on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.

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