The best indicator for iShares S&P 500 (IVV)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real iShares S&P 500 (IVV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where iShares S&P 500 (IVV) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
EMA 9/26 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for iShares S&P 500 (IVV) over ~26.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
iShares S&P 500 (IVV) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for iShares S&P 500 (IVV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.78 | -24.6% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.2% |
| 2 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.77 | -21.0% | 60.0% | 40 | 0.1% |
| 3 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.74 | -20.8% | 61.9% | 21 | -0.7% |
| 4 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.74 | -24.6% | 87.5% | 16 | -1.0% |
| 5 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.73 | -32.6% | 65.0% | 20 | -0.5% |
| 6 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.72 | -20.8% | 56.5% | 23 | -0.7% |
| 7 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.72 | -14.0% | 61.9% | 42 | -2.0% |
| 8 | SMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.72 | -18.9% | 68.6% | 51 | -1.4% |
| 9 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.72 | -31.8% | 47.4% | 19 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.72 | -23.4% | 57.1% | 28 | -0.4% |
| 11 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.72 | -22.9% | 72.2% | 18 | -0.3% |
| 12 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.71 | -25.6% | 56.1% | 41 | -0.7% |
| 13 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.71 | -21.1% | 39.5% | 76 | -1.3% |
| 14 | T3 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.71 | -15.0% | 44.6% | 83 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on iShares S&P 500 (IVV)
1 of 638 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on iShares S&P 500 (IVV) outright. Another 502 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 95 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donchian Midline | 1 | 2.13× | 4.64× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.54× | 5.49× |
| Rate of Change | — | 1.21× | 6.07× |
| Inverse Fisher RSI | — | 1.34× | 6.0× |
| QQE | — | 1.35× | 3.42× |
| Elastic VW MA | — | 1.36× | 5.41× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For iShares S&P 500 (IVV), EMA 9/26 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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