The best indicator for iShares S&P 500 (IVV)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real iShares S&P 500 (IVV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Williams %R (28)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for iShares S&P 500 (IVV) over ~26.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for iShares S&P 500 (IVV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.77 | -21.2% | 60.0% | 40 | 0.2% |
| 2 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.76 | -24.6% | 70.6% | 17 | -0.3% |
| 3 | Williams %R (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.73 | -23.4% | 57.1% | 28 | -0.2% |
| 4 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.73 | -24.6% | 87.5% | 16 | -1.1% |
| 5 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.72 | -32.6% | 65.0% | 20 | -0.6% |
| 6 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.72 | -20.8% | 63.6% | 22 | -0.8% |
| 7 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.8% | 0.71 | -25.6% | 56.1% | 41 | -0.7% |
| 8 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.71 | -20.8% | 56.5% | 23 | -0.7% |
| 9 | SMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.71 | -18.9% | 67.3% | 52 | -1.5% |
| 10 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.71 | -31.9% | 47.4% | 19 | 0.6% |
| 11 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.71 | -22.5% | 72.2% | 18 | -0.3% |
| 12 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.7 | -23.3% | 63.2% | 19 | -0.9% |
| 13 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.7 | -21.1% | 39.5% | 76 | -1.4% |
| 14 | T3 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.7 | -15.0% | 44.6% | 83 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For iShares S&P 500 (IVV), Williams %R (28) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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