The best indicator for Volatility Index (VIX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Volatility Index (VIX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
MA Envelope
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Volatility Index (VIX) over ~36.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 119.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Volatility Index (VIX) — beating buy-and-hold by 55.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 120.4% | 1.52 | -51.9% | 65.6% | 628 | 119.8% |
| 2 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 96.9% | 1.37 | -48.9% | 71.2% | 420 | 96.3% |
| 3 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 77.3% | 1.36 | -36.7% | 65.5% | 496 | 76.7% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 58.8% | 1.25 | -42.4% | 65.4% | 442 | 58.2% |
| 5 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 99.2% | 1.25 | -65.7% | 81.6% | 174 | 98.6% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 83.6% | 1.24 | -51.7% | 52.5% | 343 | 83.5% |
| 7 | Williams %R ✓ | Daily | 86.2% | 1.22 | -60.6% | 70.2% | 282 | 85.6% |
| 8 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 88.4% | 1.22 | -49.7% | 63.2% | 190 | 88.2% |
| 9 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 59.6% | 1.1 | -55.1% | 49.8% | 283 | 59.4% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Daily | 62.8% | 1.08 | -52.2% | 68.3% | 224 | 62.2% |
| 11 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 74.9% | 1.07 | -60.7% | 76.9% | 104 | 74.7% |
| 12 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 58.5% | 1.06 | -54.2% | 47.2% | 428 | 58.3% |
| 13 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 71.0% | 1.02 | -66.6% | 72.4% | 156 | 70.4% |
| 14 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 61.8% | 1.01 | -56.6% | 56.6% | 152 | 61.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Volatility Index (VIX), MA Envelope on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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