The best indicator for FTSE 100
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real FTSE 100 history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where FTSE 100 stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DeMarker
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for FTSE 100 over ~42.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
FTSE 100 on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for FTSE 100 — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.45 | -38.6% | 78.1% | 155 | -0.9% |
| 2 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.41 | -23.9% | 82.9% | 35 | -2.3% |
| 3 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.41 | -23.9% | 82.9% | 35 | -2.3% |
| 4 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.4 | -35.9% | 27.4% | 84 | -1.1% |
| 5 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.4 | -40.4% | 58.1% | 43 | -1.7% |
| 6 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.38 | -33.8% | 57.1% | 49 | -1.9% |
| 7 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.38 | -28.3% | 52.9% | 189 | -1.9% |
| 8 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.38 | -52.6% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.6% |
| 9 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.38 | -28.3% | 52.9% | 189 | -1.9% |
| 10 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.37 | -40.0% | 77.5% | 120 | -1.7% |
| 11 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.37 | -39.3% | 55.8% | 43 | -2.2% |
| 12 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.37 | -40.8% | 59.6% | 52 | -1.9% |
| 13 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 3.3% | 0.36 | -32.7% | 67.7% | 99 | -2.3% |
| 14 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 3.2% | 0.35 | -38.4% | 48.3% | 58 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on FTSE 100
27 of 706 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on FTSE 100 outright. Another 49 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 52 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 2 | none needed | 3.72× |
| Williams %R | 2 | none needed | 5.84× |
| MA Envelope | 2 | none needed | 3.74× |
| VWAP Bands | 2 | none needed | 3.58× |
| Demand Index | 2 | none needed | 3.87× |
| Fibonacci Bands | 2 | none needed | 3.72× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For FTSE 100, DeMarker on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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