The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (NDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Ehlers Decycler
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) over ~40.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.83 | -41.5% | 53.1% | 113 | -1.7% |
| 2 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.82 | -41.5% | 50.0% | 106 | -1.9% |
| 3 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.82 | -41.0% | 60.0% | 35 | -0.9% |
| 4 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.82 | -35.7% | 57.7% | 52 | -1.0% |
| 5 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.81 | -42.4% | 47.9% | 73 | -1.5% |
| 6 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 13.3% | 0.81 | -42.2% | 56.4% | 55 | -1.3% |
| 7 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 14.3% | 0.8 | -70.2% | 60.0% | 65 | -0.3% |
| 8 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 12.4% | 0.8 | -42.9% | 51.9% | 108 | -2.2% |
| 9 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.8 | -46.5% | 45.1% | 71 | -1.9% |
| 10 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 12.3% | 0.8 | -44.1% | 53.8% | 119 | -2.3% |
| 11 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.8 | -39.2% | 55.4% | 56 | -1.4% |
| 12 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.8 | -42.7% | 64.7% | 51 | -2.7% |
| 13 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.3% | 0.79 | -51.1% | 48.5% | 99 | -2.3% |
| 14 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.79 | -49.3% | 53.0% | 83 | -2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq 100 (NDX), Ehlers Decycler on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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