The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (NDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Nasdaq 100 (NDX) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
KAMA 200 Trend
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.6% CAGR.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 15.5% | 1.24 | -12.1% | 27.6% | 29 | -5.6% |
| 2 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 16.6% | 1.17 | -12.1% | 52.9% | 17 | -4.5% |
| 3 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.2% | 1.09 | -11.6% | 31.6% | 19 | -7.9% |
| 4 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.4% | 1.07 | -15.5% | 46.7% | 15 | -7.7% |
| 5 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.83 | -41.5% | 53.5% | 114 | -1.7% |
| 6 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.82 | -41.5% | 50.0% | 106 | -1.9% |
| 7 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.82 | -41.0% | 60.0% | 35 | -0.9% |
| 8 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 13.4% | 0.82 | -42.2% | 56.4% | 55 | -1.3% |
| 9 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.82 | -35.7% | 57.7% | 52 | -1.0% |
| 10 | G-Channel ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.7% | 1.04 | -16.1% | 43.2% | 37 | -7.4% |
| 11 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Weekly | 13.1% | 0.81 | -42.4% | 47.9% | 73 | -1.5% |
| 12 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 13.3% | 0.81 | -39.2% | 55.4% | 56 | -1.4% |
| 13 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 13.6% | 1.1 | -12.5% | 42.9% | 14 | -7.5% |
| 14 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.8 | -70.2% | 60.0% | 65 | -0.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
2 of 1365 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Nasdaq 100 (NDX) outright. Another 885 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 246 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) | 1 | 1.59× | 4.64× |
| Zero-Lag LSMA | 1 | 2.35× | 3.93× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.01× | 4.69× |
| QQE | — | 1.41× | 3.77× |
| Williams Fractals | — | 1.62× | 6.18× |
| Premier Stochastic | — | 1.72× | 5.85× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Nasdaq 100 (NDX), KAMA 200 Trend on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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