The best indicator for Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nasdaq 100 (NDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 100 Trend
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.6% | 1.27 | -11.2% | 40.0% | 30 | -3.8% |
| 2 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.6% | 1.27 | -11.2% | 40.0% | 30 | -3.8% |
| 3 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.1% | 1.22 | -10.4% | 40.0% | 15 | -4.3% |
| 4 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 1.18 | -11.6% | 46.7% | 105 | -7.1% |
| 5 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.1% | 1.12 | -14.1% | 47.4% | 38 | -7.3% |
| 6 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.1% | 1.09 | -10.9% | 54.2% | 83 | -10.3% |
| 7 | ALMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.4% | 1.09 | -10.8% | 47.8% | 69 | -7.0% |
| 8 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.3% | 1.09 | -12.3% | 41.4% | 29 | -6.1% |
| 9 | SMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.3% | 1.08 | -10.3% | 36.4% | 33 | -7.1% |
| 10 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 12.9% | 0.83 | -41.5% | 53.1% | 113 | -1.7% |
| 11 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.4% | 1.06 | -15.5% | 46.7% | 15 | -6.0% |
| 12 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.82 | -41.5% | 50.0% | 106 | -1.9% |
| 13 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.82 | -41.0% | 60.0% | 35 | -0.9% |
| 14 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.82 | -35.7% | 57.7% | 52 | -1.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nasdaq 100 (NDX), EMA 100 Trend on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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