The best indicator for Dow Jones (DJI)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dow Jones (DJI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
McGinley 100 Trend
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dow Jones (DJI) over ~2.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.2% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Dow Jones (DJI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.7% | 1.23 | -5.9% | 30.2% | 53 | -3.2% |
| 2 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.8% | 1.19 | -6.6% | 57.1% | 21 | -4.2% |
| 3 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.67 | -14.6% | 54.4% | 90 | -1.1% |
| 4 | Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.66 | -26.6% | 46.5% | 142 | -1.4% |
| 5 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.65 | -32.2% | 44.3% | 70 | -0.5% |
| 6 | Accumulation/Distribution ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.64 | -32.2% | 44.3% | 70 | -0.7% |
| 7 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.64 | -33.9% | 52.1% | 71 | -1.2% |
| 8 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.64 | -33.9% | 52.1% | 71 | -1.2% |
| 9 | On-Balance Volume ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.6 | -27.4% | 50.9% | 114 | -2.6% |
| 10 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.57 | -36.8% | 53.7% | 41 | -2.8% |
| 11 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.57 | -39.7% | 44.2% | 77 | -2.6% |
| 12 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.57 | -46.3% | 50.6% | 87 | -2.5% |
| 13 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.61 | -29.8% | 71.4% | 14 | -1.4% |
| 14 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.56 | -30.8% | 51.3% | 39 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Dow Jones (DJI), McGinley 100 Trend on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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