The best indicator for Heating Oil (HO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Heating Oil (HO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Heating Oil (HO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Hammer
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Heating Oil (HO) over ~26.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Heating Oil (HO) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Heating Oil (HO) — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammer ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.54 | -19.4% | 84.0% | 25 | 0.3% |
| 2 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.5 | -45.7% | 48.2% | 110 | 4.2% |
| 3 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.47 | -53.7% | 36.4% | 44 | 3.7% |
| 4 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -67.3% | 43.1% | 58 | 4.1% |
| 5 | TRIMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.44 | -58.4% | 36.5% | 63 | 2.3% |
| 6 | Klinger Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.44 | -40.7% | 48.5% | 134 | 2.3% |
| 7 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.44 | -62.5% | 46.6% | 133 | 2.4% |
| 8 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.43 | -58.0% | 40.0% | 180 | 2.2% |
| 9 | Chaikin Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.43 | -62.1% | 46.0% | 50 | 2.3% |
| 10 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.43 | -53.7% | 33.3% | 18 | 1.6% |
| 11 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.42 | -62.3% | 52.6% | 19 | 2.0% |
| 12 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.42 | -82.7% | 43.6% | 78 | 2.8% |
| 13 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.42 | -69.2% | 48.1% | 27 | 2.7% |
| 14 | Donchian 100 Break ✓ | Daily | 10.0% | 0.48 | -68.9% | 61.5% | 13 | 3.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Heating Oil (HO)
278 of 664 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Heating Oil (HO) outright. Another 110 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 150 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | 1.28× | 1.71× |
| EMA-10 Trend | 2 | none needed | 1.74× |
| Supertrend Fast (10,2) | 2 | none needed | 1.97× |
| TRIX | 2 | none needed | 2.1× |
| CCI Trend | 2 | none needed | 1.79× |
| On-Balance Volume | 2 | none needed | 1.82× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Heating Oil (HO), Hammer on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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