The best indicator for S&P 500 Futures (ES)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 Futures (ES) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where S&P 500 Futures (ES) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
EMA 9/26 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 Futures (ES) over ~26.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR.
S&P 500 Futures (ES) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 Futures (ES) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.72 | -21.1% | 86.7% | 15 | 1.0% |
| 2 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.65 | -20.6% | 66.7% | 21 | -0.4% |
| 3 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.63 | -18.9% | 70.4% | 27 | -0.1% |
| 4 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.63 | -20.5% | 55.6% | 27 | 0.0% |
| 5 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.62 | -31.5% | 68.2% | 22 | -0.0% |
| 6 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.61 | -24.3% | 68.2% | 22 | -0.2% |
| 7 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.61 | -23.9% | 57.5% | 40 | -0.4% |
| 8 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.61 | -27.9% | 62.5% | 16 | 0.9% |
| 9 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.6 | -23.1% | 68.4% | 19 | -0.3% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.6 | -29.5% | 48.1% | 27 | 1.1% |
| 11 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.6 | -19.7% | 54.3% | 46 | -0.6% |
| 12 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.59 | -24.9% | 73.9% | 23 | -0.5% |
| 13 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.59 | -19.4% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.4% |
| 14 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.57 | -23.4% | 32.4% | 68 | -0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on S&P 500 Futures (ES)
4 of 639 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on S&P 500 Futures (ES) outright. Another 476 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 106 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williams %R (21) | 1 | 1.53× | 5.06× |
| Williams %R (28) | 1 | 1.88× | 5.34× |
| Chaikin Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 4.87× |
| A/D Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 4.87× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.71× | 5.55× |
| Coppock (fast) | — | 1.21× | 6.02× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For S&P 500 Futures (ES), EMA 9/26 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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