The best indicator for ConocoPhillips (COP)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ConocoPhillips (COP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where ConocoPhillips (COP) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Camarilla Pivots
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ConocoPhillips (COP) over ~44.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.0% CAGR.
ConocoPhillips (COP) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for ConocoPhillips (COP) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.57 | -55.0% | 53.2% | 489 | -2.0% |
| 2 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.53 | -66.7% | 75.6% | 127 | -1.4% |
| 3 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.52 | -56.7% | 88.4% | 43 | -3.1% |
| 4 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 11.6% | 0.52 | -64.4% | 49.6% | 125 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.52 | -61.9% | 57.0% | 342 | -3.3% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.51 | -63.9% | 56.5% | 363 | -3.3% |
| 7 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.48 | -62.8% | 57.4% | 298 | -2.7% |
| 8 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.47 | -40.9% | 63.5% | 351 | -4.7% |
| 9 | Trend Intensity Index ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.47 | -38.9% | 60.5% | 76 | -3.1% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.5% | 0.47 | -70.7% | 31.8% | 22 | -1.0% |
| 11 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.47 | -45.2% | 62.5% | 16 | -2.4% |
| 12 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 8.2% | 0.46 | -69.1% | 72.6% | 175 | -3.2% |
| 13 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.46 | -56.7% | 92.0% | 25 | -4.4% |
| 14 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.46 | -56.8% | 71.8% | 110 | -4.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on ConocoPhillips (COP)
35 of 713 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on ConocoPhillips (COP) outright. Another 225 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 341 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag LSMA | 2 | none needed | 2.42× |
| HalfTrend | 2 | none needed | 2.74× |
| Half Trend | 2 | none needed | 2.74× |
| Inverse Fisher RSI | 1 | 1.04× | 2.38× |
| ROC (60) | 1 | 1.26× | 2.36× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.43× | 1.82× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For ConocoPhillips (COP), Camarilla Pivots on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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