The best indicator for Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Builders FirstSource (BLDR) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Builders FirstSource (BLDR) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Historical Volatility Regime
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Builders FirstSource (BLDR) over ~21.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 15.5% CAGR.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Builders FirstSource (BLDR) — beating buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Daily | 22.5% | 0.75 | -51.1% | 52.1% | 146 | 15.5% |
| 2 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 0.64 | -52.2% | 50.6% | 160 | 10.9% |
| 3 | TRIX (21) ✓ | Daily | 20.5% | 0.63 | -72.2% | 48.6% | 35 | 13.5% |
| 4 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Weekly | 20.5% | 0.63 | -59.3% | 65.4% | 26 | 13.6% |
| 5 | T3 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 19.9% | 0.61 | -78.1% | 61.3% | 31 | 12.8% |
| 6 | SMA 5/20 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 19.9% | 0.61 | -63.2% | 53.6% | 28 | 13.0% |
| 7 | Trend Intensity Index ✓ | Daily | 18.9% | 0.6 | -79.1% | 51.7% | 29 | 11.8% |
| 8 | Premier Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 18.5% | 0.59 | -66.7% | 58.1% | 31 | 11.6% |
| 9 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | Weekly | 18.5% | 0.59 | -62.9% | 53.6% | 28 | 11.5% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 18.9% | 0.58 | -85.3% | 37.5% | 16 | 11.8% |
| 11 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 0.58 | -73.3% | 47.8% | 46 | 11.0% |
| 12 | SMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 0.58 | -78.4% | 52.9% | 34 | 10.8% |
| 13 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 0.58 | -80.8% | 46.3% | 41 | 10.8% |
| 14 | ALMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 18.6% | 0.58 | -71.4% | 48.7% | 39 | 11.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
181 of 586 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Builders FirstSource (BLDR) outright. Another 149 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 140 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Random Walk Index | 2 | none needed | 2.09× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 2 | none needed | 1.9× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | none needed | 1.94× |
| Cutler's RSI | 2 | none needed | 2.18× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 1.89× |
| ROC (14) | 2 | none needed | 2.18× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Historical Volatility Regime on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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