The best indicator for USD/INR
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/INR history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/INR stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/INR over ~23.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
USD/INR on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/INR — beating buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 1.0 | -22.6% | 32.8% | 597 | 1.9% |
| 2 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.98 | -18.6% | 29.2% | 233 | 2.2% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.88 | -13.9% | 39.9% | 273 | 1.7% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.85 | -15.1% | 31.2% | 417 | 1.3% |
| 5 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.79 | -7.9% | 40.9% | 208 | 1.0% |
| 6 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.79 | -7.9% | 40.9% | 208 | 1.0% |
| 7 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.74 | -8.9% | 29.2% | 319 | 0.8% |
| 8 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 4.1% | 0.74 | -20.8% | 35.5% | 440 | 0.9% |
| 9 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.74 | -8.9% | 29.2% | 319 | 0.8% |
| 10 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 4.0% | 0.73 | -10.1% | 29.1% | 316 | 0.8% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.71 | -13.5% | 33.1% | 148 | 0.2% |
| 12 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.71 | -13.2% | 31.2% | 240 | 0.6% |
| 13 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.71 | -11.3% | 32.6% | 273 | 0.6% |
| 14 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.69 | -15.0% | 33.5% | 158 | 0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/INR
3 of 543 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/INR outright. Another 292 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 29 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | 1 | 2.1× | 15.94× |
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | 2.93× | 14.23× |
| DMI Direction | 1 | 3.38× | 14.69× |
| Aroon | — | 1.39× | 15.47× |
| Aroon Oscillator | — | 1.39× | 15.47× |
| DeMarker (14) | — | 1.62× | 15.1× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/INR, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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