The best indicator for USD/INR
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/INR history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/INR over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/INR — beating buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 1.0 | -22.6% | 32.7% | 587 | 1.9% |
| 2 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.99 | -18.6% | 29.3% | 232 | 2.3% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 4.9% | 0.88 | -13.9% | 39.5% | 271 | 1.7% |
| 4 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 4.5% | 0.84 | -15.1% | 31.0% | 413 | 1.3% |
| 5 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.82 | -7.9% | 41.2% | 204 | 1.2% |
| 6 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.82 | -7.9% | 41.2% | 204 | 1.2% |
| 7 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.78 | -8.6% | 29.2% | 312 | 1.0% |
| 8 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.78 | -8.6% | 29.2% | 312 | 1.0% |
| 9 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.77 | -10.1% | 29.1% | 309 | 1.0% |
| 10 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 4.2% | 0.76 | -20.8% | 35.1% | 433 | 1.0% |
| 11 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 3.5% | 0.72 | -13.5% | 33.3% | 147 | 0.3% |
| 12 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.72 | -11.3% | 33.0% | 270 | 0.7% |
| 13 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.71 | -13.2% | 31.5% | 238 | 0.7% |
| 14 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 3.4% | 0.69 | -15.0% | 33.8% | 157 | 0.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/INR, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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