The best indicator for Celestia
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Celestia history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Stochastic Momentum Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Celestia over ~6.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime | Daily | 99.6% | 1.08 | -82.2% | 57.6% | 99 | 96.9% |
| 2 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) | Daily | 101.4% | 0.99 | -81.3% | 60.6% | 71 | 98.7% |
| 3 | Detrended Price Osc. | Daily | 83.2% | 0.94 | -86.2% | 47.0% | 215 | 80.4% |
| 4 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.93 | -98.3% | 56.7% | 30 | 5.0% |
| 5 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 79.2% | 0.92 | -82.2% | 50.0% | 70 | 76.5% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | 48.2% | 0.8 | -82.2% | 68.0% | 25 | 45.5% |
| 7 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 44.9% | 0.8 | -92.7% | 49.3% | 69 | 42.2% |
| 8 | Fibonacci Bands | Daily | 48.2% | 0.8 | -82.2% | 68.0% | 25 | 45.5% |
| 9 | Stochastic RSI | Daily | 22.7% | 0.77 | -91.1% | 54.3% | 46 | 20.0% |
| 10 | Camarilla Pivots | Weekly | 120.1% | 0.75 | -66.0% | 46.8% | 47 | 95.4% |
| 11 | Demand Index | Daily | -3.3% | 0.61 | -86.1% | 64.3% | 28 | -6.0% |
| 12 | Pivot Points (Standard) | Weekly | 64.0% | 0.7 | -56.7% | 57.7% | 26 | 39.4% |
| 13 | VWAP Bands | Daily | 14.1% | 0.53 | -82.2% | 66.7% | 18 | 11.4% |
| 14 | Ehlers Cyber Cycle | Weekly | -28.7% | 0.52 | -95.1% | 42.1% | 19 | -53.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Celestia, Stochastic Momentum Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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