The best indicator for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Money Flow Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) over ~26.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.66 | -36.2% | 82.6% | 23 | -3.1% |
| 2 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.65 | -33.1% | 64.5% | 304 | -3.9% |
| 3 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.62 | -59.0% | 75.7% | 74 | -3.9% |
| 4 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 14.7% | 0.62 | -58.3% | 65.2% | 92 | -0.2% |
| 5 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.61 | -35.9% | 52.2% | 46 | -3.5% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.6 | -57.1% | 63.8% | 307 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.6 | -48.3% | 59.3% | 27 | -2.7% |
| 8 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.59 | -40.1% | 47.5% | 40 | -2.7% |
| 9 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.59 | -29.7% | 47.7% | 44 | -6.9% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.58 | -45.6% | 36.0% | 25 | -1.9% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.58 | -32.7% | 92.0% | 25 | -6.2% |
| 12 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.58 | -55.8% | 53.8% | 65 | -2.6% |
| 13 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.58 | -46.2% | 57.1% | 28 | -4.0% |
| 14 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.57 | -42.8% | 62.5% | 16 | -4.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
6 of 659 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) outright. Another 245 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 188 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.26× | 3.11× |
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | 1.7× | 4.36× |
| Williams %R | 1 | 1.72× | 4.03× |
| Camarilla Pivots | 1 | 1.92× | 4.44× |
| Smoothed Heikin-Ashi | 1 | none needed | 3.22× |
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 3.52× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Money Flow Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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