The best indicator for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Money Flow Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) over ~26.3 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.1% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.66 | -36.2% | 82.6% | 23 | -3.1% |
| 2 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.65 | -33.1% | 64.5% | 304 | -3.9% |
| 3 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.62 | -59.0% | 75.7% | 74 | -3.9% |
| 4 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 14.7% | 0.62 | -58.3% | 65.2% | 92 | -0.2% |
| 5 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.61 | -35.9% | 52.2% | 46 | -3.5% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | Daily | 11.9% | 0.6 | -57.1% | 63.8% | 307 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.6 | -48.3% | 59.3% | 27 | -2.7% |
| 8 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.59 | -40.1% | 47.5% | 40 | -2.7% |
| 9 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.59 | -29.7% | 47.7% | 44 | -6.9% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.58 | -45.6% | 36.0% | 25 | -1.9% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.58 | -32.7% | 92.0% | 25 | -6.2% |
| 12 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 12.2% | 0.58 | -55.8% | 53.8% | 65 | -2.6% |
| 13 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.58 | -46.2% | 57.1% | 28 | -4.0% |
| 14 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.57 | -42.8% | 62.5% | 16 | -4.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Money Flow Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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