The best indicator for Russell 2000 (RUT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Russell 2000 (RUT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Russell 2000 (RUT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Russell 2000 (RUT) over ~38.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Russell 2000 (RUT) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Russell 2000 (RUT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.61 | -33.3% | 52.8% | 123 | -0.3% |
| 2 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.61 | -33.6% | 65.5% | 29 | 0.2% |
| 3 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.2% | 0.78 | -14.4% | 50.0% | 18 | -1.6% |
| 4 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.6 | -29.3% | 45.2% | 126 | -0.2% |
| 5 | Smoothed Heikin-Ashi ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.6 | -26.8% | 52.8% | 123 | -0.4% |
| 6 | Trend Magic ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.6 | -33.9% | 54.7% | 117 | -0.2% |
| 7 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.59 | -31.1% | 86.0% | 43 | -1.4% |
| 8 | Waddah Attar Explosion ✓ | 4-Hour | 5.0% | 0.75 | -9.6% | 37.0% | 73 | -5.8% |
| 9 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.58 | -36.7% | 44.7% | 170 | -0.5% |
| 10 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.58 | -38.7% | 48.6% | 348 | -1.0% |
| 11 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.58 | -37.7% | 50.8% | 122 | -0.4% |
| 12 | Q-Stick ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.58 | -29.4% | 53.5% | 157 | -0.5% |
| 13 | Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.58 | -46.7% | 49.1% | 159 | 0.1% |
| 14 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Daily | 6.9% | 0.57 | -38.4% | 38.7% | 333 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Russell 2000 (RUT)
2 of 1340 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Russell 2000 (RUT) outright. Another 357 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 371 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.41× | 4.16× |
| Relative Volatility Index | 1 | 7.74× | 5.29× |
| Williams %R | — | 1.7× | 11.37× |
| Volatility Stop (ATR) | — | 3.26× | 4.91× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 4.29× | 4.01× |
| CCI | — | 1.52× | 8.04× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Russell 2000 (RUT), Supertrend (14,4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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