The best indicator for Nikkei 225
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nikkei 225 history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Keltner Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nikkei 225 over ~59.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nikkei 225 — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.7 | -29.7% | 47.0% | 268 | -0.7% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.68 | -42.4% | 51.1% | 227 | -1.0% |
| 3 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 4.4% | 0.66 | -25.7% | 48.8% | 603 | -2.5% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.65 | -38.2% | 43.4% | 343 | -0.9% |
| 5 | DEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.65 | -29.6% | 41.5% | 212 | -0.2% |
| 6 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.64 | -27.1% | 48.1% | 162 | 0.8% |
| 7 | DMI Direction ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.64 | -22.5% | 47.1% | 121 | 0.2% |
| 8 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.64 | -27.5% | 48.4% | 159 | 0.7% |
| 9 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.64 | -29.2% | 49.3% | 148 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.63 | -34.4% | 37.5% | 488 | -1.3% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.63 | -28.7% | 46.5% | 142 | 0.6% |
| 12 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.63 | -23.3% | 61.4% | 171 | -1.4% |
| 13 | Acceleration Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.62 | -24.1% | 53.3% | 150 | -1.2% |
| 14 | RSI (7) ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.62 | -27.5% | 44.3% | 228 | 0.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Nikkei 225, Keltner Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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