The best indicator for Nikkei 225
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Nikkei 225 history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Nikkei 225 stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner Breakout
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Nikkei 225 over ~60.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR.
Nikkei 225 on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Nikkei 225 — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.69 | -29.7% | 47.2% | 269 | -0.7% |
| 2 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.66 | -42.4% | 50.9% | 228 | -1.1% |
| 3 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 4.3% | 0.64 | -25.7% | 48.6% | 605 | -2.5% |
| 4 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.64 | -27.1% | 48.5% | 163 | 0.8% |
| 5 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 5.9% | 0.63 | -38.2% | 43.3% | 344 | -0.9% |
| 6 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.63 | -27.5% | 48.8% | 160 | 0.7% |
| 7 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.63 | -23.3% | 62.0% | 171 | -1.3% |
| 8 | DEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.63 | -29.6% | 41.8% | 213 | -0.3% |
| 9 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.63 | -29.2% | 49.7% | 149 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | Daily | 5.5% | 0.62 | -34.4% | 37.4% | 489 | -1.3% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.62 | -28.7% | 46.5% | 142 | 0.6% |
| 12 | DMI Direction ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.62 | -22.5% | 46.3% | 123 | 0.0% |
| 13 | TEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.61 | -40.2% | 36.7% | 425 | -0.7% |
| 14 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.61 | -27.1% | 47.3% | 182 | 0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Nikkei 225
2 of 728 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Nikkei 225 outright. Another 382 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 250 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.65× | 2.29× |
| Momentum (50) | 1 | 2.15× | 2.86× |
| VIDYA 200 Trend | — | 1.33× | 3.0× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.44× | 2.56× |
| Guppy Multiple MA | — | 1.56× | 3.0× |
| Supertrend (14,4) | — | 1.56× | 3.31× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Nikkei 225, Keltner Breakout on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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