Does anything beat buy & hold on Nikkei 225?
Every setup we tested on Nikkei 225 — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
Beat buy-and-hold in both windows — but can't be told apart from selection luck.
Beat buy-and-hold in both the full window and out-of-sample but its OOS Sharpe 0.66 did not clear the 0.85 selection hurdle (best-of-N luck cannot be ruled out). Buy-and-hold benchmark: +6.6% CAGR over 61.6 years (+8.5% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nikkei 225 (N225): Momentum (50) Beat the Index, But Couldn't Beat the Odds
Broad index funds like Nikkei 225 are diversified by construction, which makes them stubbornly hard to beat — most of what looks like edge in a backtest is just the market's own return, rearranged. Here the picture is genuinely mixed. Out of 757 indicator configurations we tested on N225, the strongest was Momentum (50) on the weekly timeframe. It outperformed buy-and-hold in both the training and out-of-sample windows, with a profitable trade profile across 63 out-of-sample trades. That is more than most setups on this asset manage, and less than what we would call validated.
Read the figures with the selection problem in mind. An out-of-sample Sharpe of 0.66 sounds fine until you remember it was chosen as the best of hundreds of attempts; our hurdle of 0.85 exists precisely to discount that luck, and this setup did not clear it. The out-of-sample alpha of +0.5% over 18.5 years, a 52.4% win rate, and a -43.4% drawdown describe one historical path, nothing more. Only 0.3% of setups beat buy-and-hold at all here, while buy-and-hold itself compounded at +6.6%. Market regimes shift; past performance carries no promise about future results.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
Top setups as mechanical rules
Exactly as the backtest defined them — no discretionary steps, no hidden filters.
Momentum (50)
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): VARIANT — 50-period momentum; long while positive. Signals are evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.66 · alpha +0.5% · 25 trades over 18.5 yrs.
ADX / DMI
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): Trend strength — long when +DI > -DI and ADX > 20. Signals are evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.64 · alpha -2.4% · 95 trades over 18.0 yrs.
Keltner 20 Break
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): Variant — 20-bar Keltner upper-band breakout; long above the band. Signals are evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 0.64 · alpha -4.2% · 30 trades over 18.5 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The forward record is just getting started — the gap between the two is the honest score. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-06-29. Currently LONG.
We tested 757 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Nikkei 225. Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (720 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 757 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 0.85 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 0.3% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe 0.3) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. Full recipe: methodology · the engine’s contract lives in the repo as STRATEGY_METHODOLOGY.md.
Top 20 of 720 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Momentum (50) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.59 | -43.4% | 52.4% | 63 | +0.4% | 0.66 | +0.5% | 25 |
| 2 | ADX / DMI | Daily | >+999% | 0.65 | -38.2% | 43.4% | 343 | -0.9% | 0.64 | -2.4% | 95 |
| 3 | Keltner 20 Break | Weekly | +831.5% | 0.54 | -28.9% | 50.0% | 124 | -2.9% | 0.64 | -4.2% | 30 |
| 4 | LSMA 30 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.59 | -35.9% | 53.8% | 221 | -1.1% | 0.63 | -1.8% | 67 |
| 5 | LSMA 100 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.55 | -36.9% | 43.3% | 90 | -1.1% | 0.62 | -1.3% | 22 |
| 6 | DEMA 30 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.65 | -29.6% | 41.5% | 212 | -0.2% | 0.62 | -1.7% | 70 |
| 7 | ZLEMA 100 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -33.7% | 48.1% | 106 | -0.8% | 0.61 | -1.4% | 30 |
| 8 | Least Squares MA | Weekly | >+999% | 0.46 | -62.7% | 52.0% | 254 | -1.7% | 0.59 | -1.2% | 75 |
| 9 | KAMA 200 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -33.2% | 45.3% | 64 | 0.0% | 0.58 | -0.8% | 17 |
| 10 | Stoch RSI (fast) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.45 | -63.6% | 49.4% | 346 | -1.7% | 0.58 | -1.4% | 108 |
| 11 | Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.6 | -55.7% | 49.7% | 286 | +0.4% | 0.57 | -1.2% | 84 |
| 12 | Williams %R (7) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.52 | -43.8% | 47.9% | 292 | -0.9% | 0.57 | -1.4% | 87 |
| 13 | MBFX Timing | Weekly | >+999% | 0.52 | -43.8% | 47.9% | 292 | -0.9% | 0.57 | -1.4% | 87 |
| 14 | Range Filter | Weekly | +545.5% | 0.44 | -23.6% | 47.7% | 264 | -3.5% | 0.56 | -4.3% | 79 |
| 15 | Know Sure Thing | Weekly | >+999% | 0.42 | -51.5% | 47.6% | 84 | -2.2% | 0.55 | -1.7% | 27 |
| 16 | QQE | Weekly | >+999% | 0.41 | -80.0% | 46.2% | 186 | -0.7% | 0.54 | +0.8% | 54 |
| 17 | T3 10/40 Cross | Weekly | >+999% | 0.42 | -53.8% | 51.4% | 37 | -1.9% | 0.54 | -1.2% | 12 |
| 18 | Ichimoku TK Cross | Weekly | >+999% | 0.48 | -48.2% | 42.6% | 68 | -1.1% | 0.54 | -1.5% | 29 |
| 19 | CMO (21) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -31.9% | 50.4% | 115 | +0.2% | 0.54 | -1.5% | 43 |
| 20 | DEMA 200 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.45 | -36.1% | 44.8% | 58 | -2.2% | 0.54 | -2.1% | 20 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.