The best indicator for S&P 500 Index (SPX)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 Index (SPX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
EMA 20/80 Cross
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) over ~2.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 7.2% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA 200 Trend | 1-Hour | 12.8% | 1.35 | -12.1% | 32.2% | 59 | -6.7% |
| 2 | EMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.4% | 1.35 | -10.0% | 37.9% | 29 | -7.2% |
| 3 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 13.1% | 1.34 | -12.3% | 33.3% | 63 | -6.4% |
| 4 | CCI (200) ✓ | 1-Hour | 12.5% | 1.34 | -10.1% | 29.5% | 44 | -7.0% |
| 5 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | 1-Hour | 13.5% | 1.23 | -10.6% | 30.4% | 23 | -6.0% |
| 6 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.3% | 1.22 | -10.7% | 33.3% | 27 | -8.2% |
| 7 | VIDYA 100 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 13.2% | 1.15 | -10.4% | 29.2% | 24 | -6.3% |
| 8 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.2% | 1.11 | -10.5% | 51.1% | 45 | -9.4% |
| 9 | Trend Intensity Index ✓ | 1-Hour | 10.3% | 1.11 | -10.5% | 50.0% | 32 | -9.2% |
| 10 | T3 15/60 Cross | 1-Hour | 9.5% | 1.09 | -11.1% | 45.0% | 40 | -10.0% |
| 11 | TRIX (21) ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.8% | 1.09 | -10.8% | 47.5% | 40 | -9.7% |
| 12 | Positive Volume Index ✓ | 1-Hour | 11.2% | 1.07 | -18.7% | 37.5% | 48 | -8.3% |
| 13 | SMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.8% | 1.07 | -10.1% | 45.7% | 35 | -9.8% |
| 14 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.62 | -37.3% | 49.2% | 313 | 0.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P 500 Index (SPX), EMA 20/80 Cross on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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