The best indicator for S&P 500 Index (SPX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 Index (SPX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where S&P 500 Index (SPX) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
SMC: Fair Value Gap
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.2% CAGR.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.5% | 1.33 | -7.4% | 41.8% | 98 | -6.2% |
| 2 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 14.3% | 1.41 | -11.0% | 50.0% | 14 | -2.4% |
| 3 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.1% | 1.25 | -7.9% | 48.6% | 37 | -6.7% |
| 4 | McGinley 30 Trend | 4-Hour | 10.6% | 1.24 | -8.3% | 43.5% | 46 | -6.1% |
| 5 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.3% | 1.18 | -9.4% | 38.2% | 34 | -6.4% |
| 6 | G-Channel ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.9% | 1.13 | -11.6% | 50.0% | 34 | -5.8% |
| 7 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.4% | 1.13 | -5.9% | 45.7% | 105 | -9.4% |
| 8 | KAMA 100 Trend | 4-Hour | 9.1% | 1.1 | -8.7% | 45.7% | 46 | -7.7% |
| 9 | RSI (30) ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.0% | 1.1 | -7.0% | 43.2% | 44 | -7.7% |
| 10 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.8% | 1.08 | -7.8% | 36.4% | 66 | -7.9% |
| 11 | McGinley 100 Trend | 1-Hour | 14.6% | 1.44 | -12.3% | 31.7% | 60 | -8.3% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross | 4-Hour | 9.1% | 1.07 | -7.8% | 40.0% | 15 | -7.6% |
| 13 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.6% | 1.07 | -8.7% | 50.0% | 44 | -8.1% |
| 14 | VIDYA 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.7% | 1.07 | -8.8% | 40.0% | 25 | -7.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on S&P 500 Index (SPX)
2 of 1418 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on S&P 500 Index (SPX) outright. Another 557 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 351 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative Volume Index | 2 | none needed | 2.5× |
| CCI (200) | — | 2.05× | 6.91× |
| WMA 10/40 Cross | — | 2.09× | 6.17× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.22× | 4.02× |
| Coral Trend | — | 2.65× | 6.21× |
| WMA 10/30 Cross | — | 2.65× | 6.62× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For S&P 500 Index (SPX), SMC: Fair Value Gap on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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