The best indicator for S&P 500 Index (SPX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P 500 Index (SPX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where S&P 500 Index (SPX) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
CCI (100)
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) over ~3.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.6% CAGR.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P 500 Index (SPX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCI (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.5% | 1.41 | -6.8% | 45.5% | 22 | -2.6% |
| 2 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.5% | 1.34 | -7.2% | 44.8% | 29 | -3.7% |
| 3 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.8% | 1.33 | -7.5% | 51.4% | 35 | -3.4% |
| 4 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.9% | 1.23 | -8.5% | 35.0% | 20 | -4.3% |
| 5 | EMA 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.2% | 1.23 | -10.7% | 53.8% | 26 | -3.9% |
| 6 | Disparity (100) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.2% | 1.23 | -10.7% | 53.8% | 26 | -3.9% |
| 7 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.7% | 1.21 | -7.5% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.4% |
| 8 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.5% | 1.21 | -10.0% | 50.0% | 22 | -2.7% |
| 9 | Super Smoother (Ehlers) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.9% | 1.21 | -6.1% | 48.0% | 102 | -6.3% |
| 10 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.8% | 1.19 | -9.4% | 45.7% | 46 | -4.4% |
| 11 | Momentum (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.3% | 1.18 | -9.8% | 42.1% | 38 | -4.8% |
| 12 | RSI (50) ✓ | 4-Hour | 10.1% | 1.17 | -10.7% | 50.0% | 28 | -4.1% |
| 13 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.0% | 1.17 | -7.4% | 42.6% | 94 | -5.1% |
| 14 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.5% | 1.16 | -6.6% | 46.3% | 95 | -7.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on S&P 500 Index (SPX)
2 of 1418 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on S&P 500 Index (SPX) outright. Another 557 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 351 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative Volume Index | 2 | none needed | 2.5× |
| CCI (200) | — | 2.05× | 6.91× |
| WMA 10/40 Cross | — | 2.09× | 6.17× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.22× | 4.02× |
| Coral Trend | — | 2.65× | 6.21× |
| WMA 10/30 Cross | — | 2.65× | 6.62× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For S&P 500 Index (SPX), CCI (100) on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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