The best indicator for Gold (GC)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Supertrend (10,3)
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GC) over ~8.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold (GC) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.6% | 1.1 | -8.3% | 60.0% | 40 | -0.5% |
| 2 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.4% | 1.08 | -8.7% | 62.5% | 40 | -0.7% |
| 3 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.91 | -13.3% | 58.6% | 70 | -2.2% |
| 4 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.3% | 0.89 | -14.9% | 43.8% | 73 | -1.8% |
| 5 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.2% | 0.87 | -16.2% | 46.0% | 50 | -1.9% |
| 6 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.86 | -14.5% | 46.8% | 62 | -2.2% |
| 7 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.0% | 0.86 | -18.4% | 46.8% | 62 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.85 | -12.5% | 50.7% | 71 | -2.2% |
| 9 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.1% | 0.85 | -13.5% | 46.5% | 43 | -2.0% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.4% | 0.84 | -8.0% | 44.7% | 170 | -3.8% |
| 11 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.1% | 0.84 | -22.7% | 25.8% | 31 | -1.1% |
| 12 | SMC: Break of Structure ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.9% | 0.84 | -19.5% | 48.5% | 130 | -3.3% |
| 13 | Williams Fractals ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.84 | -16.8% | 56.1% | 66 | -2.3% |
| 14 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.8% | 0.84 | -15.7% | 52.2% | 67 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Gold (GC), Supertrend (10,3) on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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