The best indicator for Gold (GC)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Gold (GC) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend (10,3)
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GC) over ~8.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Gold (GC) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold (GC) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.6% | 1.1 | -8.3% | 60.0% | 40 | -0.5% |
| 2 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 8.4% | 1.08 | -8.7% | 62.5% | 40 | -0.7% |
| 3 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.91 | -13.3% | 58.6% | 70 | -2.2% |
| 4 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.3% | 0.89 | -14.9% | 43.8% | 73 | -1.8% |
| 5 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.2% | 0.87 | -16.2% | 46.0% | 50 | -1.9% |
| 6 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.86 | -14.5% | 46.8% | 62 | -2.2% |
| 7 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.0% | 0.86 | -18.4% | 46.8% | 62 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.85 | -12.5% | 50.7% | 71 | -2.2% |
| 9 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | 4-Hour | 7.1% | 0.85 | -13.5% | 46.5% | 43 | -2.0% |
| 10 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.4% | 0.84 | -8.0% | 44.7% | 170 | -3.8% |
| 11 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.1% | 0.84 | -22.7% | 25.8% | 31 | -1.1% |
| 12 | SMC: Break of Structure ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.9% | 0.84 | -19.5% | 48.5% | 130 | -3.3% |
| 13 | Williams Fractals ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.9% | 0.84 | -16.8% | 56.1% | 66 | -2.3% |
| 14 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | 4-Hour | 6.8% | 0.84 | -15.7% | 52.2% | 67 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Gold (GC)
87 of 1353 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Gold (GC) outright. Another 676 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 166 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | 2.19× | 5.46× |
| Donchian 20 Break | 2 | 2.0× | 5.88× |
| EMA Cascade Rider | 2 | 2.03× | 5.85× |
| Williams Fractals | 2 | 2.94× | 5.95× |
| SMC: Fair Value Gap | 1 | 1.63× | 5.6× |
| TEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | 2.06× | 6.49× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Gold (GC), Supertrend (10,3) on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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