The best indicator for Gold (GC)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold (GC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Donchian Breakout
On the 1-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold (GC) over ~7.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold (GC) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.4% | 0.84 | -8.0% | 44.7% | 170 | -3.8% |
| 2 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | 1-Hour | 9.1% | 0.84 | -22.7% | 25.8% | 31 | -1.1% |
| 3 | SMC: Break of Structure ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.9% | 0.84 | -19.5% | 48.5% | 130 | -3.3% |
| 4 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | 1-Hour | 7.0% | 0.83 | -19.5% | 46.6% | 58 | -3.2% |
| 5 | Donchian 20 Break ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.7% | 0.8 | -12.1% | 46.3% | 121 | -3.4% |
| 6 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.6% | 0.77 | -16.1% | 41.9% | 227 | -3.6% |
| 7 | Chaikin Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.74 | -37.6% | 71.4% | 21 | -2.0% |
| 8 | PMax ✓ | 1-Hour | 6.1% | 0.74 | -19.6% | 49.3% | 75 | -4.0% |
| 9 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.73 | -27.2% | 62.5% | 24 | -1.5% |
| 10 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.73 | -31.5% | 72.0% | 25 | -1.6% |
| 11 | Net Volume ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.73 | -28.2% | 64.7% | 34 | -2.0% |
| 12 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.73 | -28.2% | 64.7% | 34 | -2.0% |
| 13 | CCI (100) ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.72 | -33.0% | 60.0% | 15 | -1.0% |
| 14 | TRIX ✓ | 1-Hour | 5.4% | 0.72 | -10.7% | 44.2% | 346 | -4.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Gold (GC), Donchian Breakout on the 1-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More commodity
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.