The best indicator for Curve
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Curve history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Curve stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Piercing Line
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Curve over ~8.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 61.4% CAGR.
Curve on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piercing Line ✓ | Daily | 29.7% | 0.91 | -27.4% | 57.1% | 42 | 61.4% |
| 2 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 47.1% | 0.84 | -68.8% | 44.1% | 34 | 82.6% |
| 3 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 39.1% | 0.79 | -74.7% | 50.0% | 18 | 70.8% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 29.6% | 0.74 | -58.7% | 63.0% | 119 | 61.3% |
| 5 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 0.72 | -65.0% | 42.9% | 35 | 61.6% |
| 6 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 28.5% | 0.7 | -71.9% | 44.8% | 29 | 60.1% |
| 7 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Daily | 27.0% | 0.68 | -71.6% | 38.4% | 73 | 58.7% |
| 8 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 27.3% | 0.68 | -81.3% | 48.5% | 101 | 58.9% |
| 9 | STARC Bands ✓ | Daily | 24.4% | 0.66 | -79.1% | 40.7% | 27 | 56.0% |
| 10 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 25.3% | 0.65 | -65.7% | 63.6% | 22 | 60.8% |
| 11 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 23.6% | 0.65 | -83.8% | 46.2% | 39 | 59.1% |
| 12 | Vertical Horizontal Filter ✓ | Daily | 22.6% | 0.64 | -71.2% | 51.7% | 60 | 54.3% |
| 13 | Net Volume ✓ | Daily | 21.8% | 0.64 | -75.3% | 40.5% | 111 | 53.5% |
| 14 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 21.8% | 0.64 | -75.3% | 40.5% | 111 | 53.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Curve lost money across the out-of-sample window in 321 of 321 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Curve, Piercing Line on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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