The best indicator for Curve
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Curve history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Piercing Line
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Curve over ~8.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 67.5% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piercing Line ✓ | Daily | 29.3% | 0.89 | -27.4% | 56.1% | 41 | 67.5% |
| 2 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 37.6% | 0.76 | -68.8% | 42.4% | 33 | 81.5% |
| 3 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 32.3% | 0.72 | -74.7% | 47.1% | 17 | 70.5% |
| 4 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 25.7% | 0.68 | -58.7% | 61.4% | 114 | 64.0% |
| 5 | Bollinger Breakout ✓ | Daily | 25.1% | 0.66 | -65.0% | 39.4% | 33 | 63.3% |
| 6 | STARC Bands ✓ | Daily | 23.9% | 0.66 | -79.1% | 40.0% | 25 | 62.1% |
| 7 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 23.4% | 0.65 | -71.9% | 38.5% | 26 | 61.6% |
| 8 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 23.3% | 0.64 | -81.3% | 46.7% | 92 | 61.5% |
| 9 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Daily | 21.4% | 0.62 | -71.6% | 34.8% | 69 | 59.6% |
| 10 | Vertical Horizontal Filter ✓ | Daily | 20.5% | 0.61 | -71.2% | 52.7% | 55 | 58.7% |
| 11 | Relative Volume Spike ✓ | Daily | 20.3% | 0.61 | -58.7% | 34.5% | 29 | 58.6% |
| 12 | Net Volume ✓ | Daily | 17.3% | 0.59 | -72.3% | 38.3% | 107 | 55.6% |
| 13 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 17.3% | 0.59 | -72.3% | 38.3% | 107 | 55.6% |
| 14 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Daily | 19.0% | 0.58 | -80.7% | 33.3% | 54 | 57.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Curve, Piercing Line on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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