The best indicator for Bilibili
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Bilibili history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Bilibili stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Trend Regularity Adaptive MA
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Bilibili over ~8.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 22.1% CAGR.
Bilibili on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Daily | 25.4% | 0.73 | -49.0% | 42.5% | 40 | 22.1% |
| 2 | Morning Star ✓ | Daily | 22.5% | 0.73 | -61.6% | 60.0% | 80 | 19.2% |
| 3 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Daily | 26.4% | 0.71 | -63.4% | 43.5% | 46 | 23.0% |
| 4 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Daily | 26.4% | 0.71 | -63.4% | 43.5% | 46 | 23.0% |
| 5 | Bollinger Squeeze ✓ | Daily | 19.5% | 0.69 | -49.3% | 50.0% | 24 | 16.2% |
| 6 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 23.5% | 0.69 | -60.8% | 48.0% | 25 | 20.1% |
| 7 | Aroon ✓ | Daily | 23.3% | 0.66 | -67.4% | 36.1% | 72 | 20.0% |
| 8 | Hull Suite ✓ | Daily | 22.8% | 0.66 | -68.3% | 42.5% | 40 | 19.5% |
| 9 | Median MA ✓ | Daily | 21.0% | 0.66 | -52.0% | 39.8% | 118 | 17.7% |
| 10 | Aroon Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 23.3% | 0.66 | -67.4% | 36.1% | 72 | 20.0% |
| 11 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Weekly | 22.6% | 0.66 | -59.3% | 66.7% | 15 | 18.9% |
| 12 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 25.3% | 0.66 | -75.0% | 46.2% | 26 | 21.6% |
| 13 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Daily | 22.4% | 0.65 | -66.4% | 46.8% | 47 | 19.1% |
| 14 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Weekly | 21.3% | 0.65 | -35.5% | 52.6% | 19 | 17.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Bilibili
97 of 396 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Bilibili outright. Another 92 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 66 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| KDJ | 2 | none needed | 3.14× |
| FRAMA 30 Trend | 2 | none needed | 2.52× |
| Fractal Adaptive MA | 1 | 1.19× | 3.32× |
| Ehlers Cyber Cycle | 1 | 1.19× | 2.55× |
| Median MA | 1 | 1.51× | 3.12× |
| Fisher Transform | 1 | 1.52× | 2.78× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Bilibili, Trend Regularity Adaptive MA on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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