The best indicator for ExxonMobil (XOM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ExxonMobil (XOM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where ExxonMobil (XOM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Bullish Engulfing
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ExxonMobil (XOM) over ~3.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
ExxonMobil (XOM) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for ExxonMobil (XOM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.0% | 1.42 | -8.5% | 61.4% | 57 | 0.3% |
| 2 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 18.8% | 1.4 | -12.9% | 78.6% | 28 | 7.2% |
| 3 | Stochastic ✓ | 4-Hour | 19.1% | 1.39 | -12.2% | 86.5% | 37 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.73 | -62.3% | 54.7% | 472 | -3.5% |
| 5 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.72 | -58.4% | 53.6% | 696 | -3.0% |
| 6 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.0% | 0.89 | -14.4% | 67.9% | 28 | 0.3% |
| 7 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.67 | -33.2% | 59.3% | 27 | -1.8% |
| 8 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.67 | -34.2% | 54.5% | 33 | -1.8% |
| 9 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | 1-Hour | 24.1% | 1.14 | -17.5% | 65.9% | 44 | 8.2% |
| 10 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.66 | -38.2% | 74.2% | 31 | -2.1% |
| 11 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.66 | -66.9% | 73.7% | 19 | -2.0% |
| 12 | SMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.66 | -36.3% | 74.1% | 27 | -1.9% |
| 13 | TRIX (21) ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.66 | -42.5% | 60.0% | 20 | -1.9% |
| 14 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.65 | -37.6% | 55.6% | 54 | -2.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on ExxonMobil (XOM)
5 of 1429 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on ExxonMobil (XOM) outright. Another 430 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 475 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend (20,3) | 1 | 1.43× | 4.23× |
| Supertrend (10,3) | 1 | 1.52× | 4.49× |
| MA Envelope | 1 | 1.24× | 1.83× |
| UT Bot (ATR Trailing) | 1 | 5.54× | 3.93× |
| Volume Zone Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.28× |
| QQE | — | 1.31× | 3.27× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For ExxonMobil (XOM), Bullish Engulfing on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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