The best indicator for ExxonMobil (XOM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ExxonMobil (XOM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where ExxonMobil (XOM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stochastic
On the 4-hour chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ExxonMobil (XOM) over ~3.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.5% CAGR.
ExxonMobil (XOM) on the 4-hour chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for ExxonMobil (XOM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic ✓ | 4-Hour | 17.0% | 1.24 | -12.3% | 83.3% | 36 | 7.5% |
| 2 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | 4-Hour | 9.0% | 1.04 | -10.6% | 58.1% | 62 | -0.5% |
| 3 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.78 | -59.8% | 55.5% | 481 | -2.7% |
| 4 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.75 | -56.3% | 54.4% | 698 | -2.3% |
| 5 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.9% | 0.96 | -14.4% | 71.4% | 28 | 3.4% |
| 6 | Williams %R ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.4% | 0.95 | -12.4% | 83.3% | 48 | 2.9% |
| 7 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | 4-Hour | 12.5% | 0.92 | -13.6% | 76.0% | 25 | 3.0% |
| 8 | CCI ✓ | 4-Hour | 11.0% | 0.9 | -14.9% | 81.1% | 37 | 1.5% |
| 9 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.69 | -63.1% | 53.9% | 523 | -3.5% |
| 10 | Ultimate Oscillator ✓ | 1-Hour | 17.9% | 1.16 | -15.0% | 75.9% | 29 | 4.8% |
| 11 | SMC: Change of Character ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.67 | -35.1% | 64.0% | 25 | -1.8% |
| 12 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.65 | -33.2% | 60.7% | 28 | -2.0% |
| 13 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.65 | -40.4% | 70.6% | 34 | -2.3% |
| 14 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.65 | -67.6% | 73.7% | 19 | -2.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on ExxonMobil (XOM)
5 of 1429 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on ExxonMobil (XOM) outright. Another 430 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 475 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supertrend (20,3) | 1 | 1.43× | 4.23× |
| Supertrend (10,3) | 1 | 1.52× | 4.49× |
| MA Envelope | 1 | 1.24× | 1.83× |
| UT Bot (ATR Trailing) | 1 | 5.54× | 3.93× |
| Volume Zone Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.28× |
| QQE | — | 1.31× | 3.27× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For ExxonMobil (XOM), Stochastic on the 4-hour timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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