The best indicator for Wayfair
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Wayfair history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Wayfair stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Median MA
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Wayfair over ~11.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 29.8% CAGR.
Wayfair on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Median MA ✓ | Daily | 37.9% | 0.98 | -48.8% | 49.1% | 159 | 29.8% |
| 2 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Daily | 37.1% | 0.88 | -79.4% | 34.1% | 132 | 29.1% |
| 3 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Daily | 34.4% | 0.82 | -82.3% | 34.9% | 166 | 26.3% |
| 4 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 24.3% | 0.81 | -47.4% | 43.8% | 32 | 16.2% |
| 5 | RSI (9) ✓ | Daily | 33.2% | 0.81 | -84.6% | 38.8% | 183 | 25.1% |
| 6 | Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) ✓ | Daily | 30.9% | 0.8 | -81.7% | 37.1% | 175 | 22.8% |
| 7 | WMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 30.1% | 0.78 | -72.0% | 35.5% | 141 | 22.1% |
| 8 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Daily | 30.1% | 0.77 | -84.6% | 36.2% | 138 | 22.0% |
| 9 | Heikin-Ashi + EMA ✓ | Daily | 30.3% | 0.77 | -78.1% | 29.0% | 138 | 22.2% |
| 10 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 27.6% | 0.77 | -62.1% | 37.0% | 73 | 19.5% |
| 11 | Volume Zone Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 30.9% | 0.77 | -75.2% | 44.9% | 49 | 21.4% |
| 12 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 0.76 | -69.0% | 41.3% | 63 | 22.0% |
| 13 | Pascal's Weighted MA ✓ | Daily | 25.3% | 0.75 | -67.0% | 45.4% | 141 | 17.3% |
| 14 | RSI (7) ✓ | Daily | 28.4% | 0.74 | -89.1% | 39.2% | 212 | 20.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Wayfair
170 of 531 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Wayfair outright. Another 100 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 158 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate of Change | 2 | none needed | 1.76× |
| Relative Vigor Index | 2 | none needed | 2.07× |
| Ehlers SuperSmoother | 2 | none needed | 2.28× |
| UT Bot (ATR Trailing) | 2 | none needed | 2.36× |
| Chande Forecast Osc. | 2 | none needed | 2.31× |
| KDJ | 2 | none needed | 1.88× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Wayfair, Median MA on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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