The best indicator for Valero Energy (VLO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Valero Energy (VLO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Valero Energy (VLO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TEMA 20/50 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Valero Energy (VLO) over ~44.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.4% CAGR.
Valero Energy (VLO) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Valero Energy (VLO) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.6% | 0.67 | -67.8% | 50.4% | 236 | 3.4% |
| 2 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Daily | 16.2% | 0.66 | -58.2% | 35.4% | 280 | 3.1% |
| 3 | TEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.6 | -72.1% | 36.5% | 444 | -0.2% |
| 4 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Daily | 13.8% | 0.59 | -71.9% | 45.9% | 255 | 0.6% |
| 5 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 12.3% | 0.59 | -50.7% | 42.7% | 342 | -0.9% |
| 6 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.58 | -54.7% | 47.5% | 242 | 0.0% |
| 7 | WMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.3% | 0.58 | -61.5% | 40.8% | 250 | 0.1% |
| 8 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 13.4% | 0.58 | -56.6% | 41.3% | 419 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.8% | 0.58 | -72.1% | 51.2% | 260 | 0.6% |
| 10 | T3 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.58 | -51.1% | 47.6% | 21 | -2.3% |
| 11 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.57 | -54.8% | 44.5% | 182 | -1.4% |
| 12 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Daily | 14.9% | 0.57 | -70.4% | 36.0% | 673 | 1.7% |
| 13 | Hull Suite ✓ | Daily | 13.1% | 0.57 | -67.8% | 40.9% | 247 | -0.1% |
| 14 | TEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.57 | -61.1% | 45.7% | 460 | 0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Valero Energy (VLO)
9 of 710 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Valero Energy (VLO) outright. Another 350 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 308 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 2.24× |
| Stochastic (20,5) | 1 | 1.47× | 2.38× |
| Predictive Ranges | 1 | 1.48× | 2.62× |
| TEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 1.94× |
| True Strength Index | 1 | none needed | 2.37× |
| KDJ | 1 | none needed | 2.4× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Valero Energy (VLO), TEMA 20/50 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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