The best indicator for USD/TRY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/TRY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/TRY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/TRY over ~22.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 5.4% CAGR.
USD/TRY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/TRY — beating buy-and-hold by 4.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 22.8% | 1.73 | -20.9% | 44.3% | 548 | 5.4% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 19.6% | 1.47 | -30.4% | 48.2% | 396 | 2.2% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 19.6% | 1.36 | -35.7% | 32.7% | 208 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 1.33 | -28.4% | 48.9% | 237 | 0.4% |
| 5 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 1.3 | -40.7% | 40.7% | 386 | 0.4% |
| 6 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 18.1% | 1.29 | -28.1% | 37.2% | 242 | 0.7% |
| 7 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 18.1% | 1.29 | -28.1% | 37.2% | 242 | 0.7% |
| 8 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 1.28 | -28.2% | 36.9% | 282 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 16.5% | 1.28 | -23.4% | 41.4% | 420 | -0.9% |
| 10 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 1.27 | -38.5% | 40.1% | 364 | 0.2% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 18.2% | 1.26 | -34.9% | 38.2% | 238 | 0.8% |
| 12 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 17.9% | 1.25 | -32.7% | 44.8% | 172 | 0.5% |
| 13 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 17.7% | 1.25 | -31.6% | 38.6% | 251 | 0.3% |
| 14 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 16.8% | 1.22 | -28.3% | 36.8% | 228 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/TRY
2 of 388 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/TRY outright. Another 354 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 26 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heikin-Ashi + EMA | 1 | none needed | 5.29× |
| SMC: Fair Value Gap | 1 | none needed | 5.29× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 2.63× | 4.27× |
| Vortex (7) | — | 1.05× | 3.45× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.08× | 4.28× |
| DeMarker (7) | — | 1.08× | 4.04× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/TRY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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