The best indicator for USD/TRY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/TRY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/TRY over ~22.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 5.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/TRY — beating buy-and-hold by 4.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 22.9% | 1.72 | -20.9% | 44.0% | 545 | 5.5% |
| 2 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 19.7% | 1.47 | -30.4% | 47.8% | 393 | 2.3% |
| 3 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 19.5% | 1.35 | -35.7% | 32.7% | 208 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 1.32 | -28.4% | 48.7% | 236 | 0.5% |
| 5 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 1.29 | -40.7% | 40.3% | 385 | 0.5% |
| 6 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 1.28 | -28.1% | 37.2% | 242 | 0.7% |
| 7 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 18.0% | 1.28 | -28.1% | 37.2% | 242 | 0.7% |
| 8 | CCI (14) ✓ | Daily | 17.5% | 1.27 | -28.2% | 36.9% | 282 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 16.4% | 1.26 | -23.4% | 41.3% | 419 | -0.9% |
| 10 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 18.1% | 1.25 | -34.9% | 38.2% | 238 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 1.25 | -38.5% | 39.9% | 363 | 0.2% |
| 12 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 17.7% | 1.24 | -31.6% | 38.6% | 251 | 0.3% |
| 13 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 17.8% | 1.23 | -32.7% | 44.8% | 172 | 0.5% |
| 14 | CCI Trend ✓ | Daily | 16.7% | 1.21 | -28.3% | 36.8% | 228 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/TRY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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