The best indicator for USD/SGD
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/SGD history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Parabolic SAR (fast)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/SGD over ~23.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/SGD — beating buy-and-hold by 2.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 0.47 | -23.9% | 31.4% | 423 | 2.9% |
| 2 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 0.43 | -20.1% | 21.8% | 271 | 2.8% |
| 3 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.29 | -20.7% | 33.6% | 268 | 2.2% |
| 4 | ADX / DMI ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.26 | -12.2% | 25.4% | 138 | 2.0% |
| 5 | ADXR ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.26 | -14.8% | 27.8% | 169 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 0.8% | 0.24 | -37.0% | 28.0% | 572 | 2.0% |
| 7 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Weekly | 0.3% | 0.21 | -4.0% | 52.9% | 17 | 1.6% |
| 8 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.18 | -3.1% | 26.5% | 34 | 1.4% |
| 9 | CCI (100) | Daily | 0.6% | 0.17 | -9.9% | 23.7% | 97 | 1.8% |
| 10 | CCI (50) ✓ | Daily | 0.5% | 0.15 | -13.3% | 20.9% | 153 | 1.7% |
| 11 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) ✓ | Weekly | 0.1% | 0.23 | -2.0% | 33.3% | 9 | 1.4% |
| 12 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 0.4% | 0.12 | -27.0% | 24.9% | 213 | 1.6% |
| 13 | DeMarker (14) ✓ | Daily | 0.3% | 0.11 | -27.3% | 23.7% | 299 | 1.6% |
| 14 | Waddah Attar Explosion | Weekly | 0.2% | 0.11 | -6.6% | 37.0% | 54 | 1.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For USD/SGD, Parabolic SAR (fast) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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