The best indicator for USD/MXN
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/MXN history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/MXN stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
RSI Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/MXN over ~23.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
USD/MXN on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/MXN — beating buy-and-hold by 0.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 0.42 | -9.1% | 69.4% | 36 | -0.3% |
| 2 | Bullish Engulfing ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.4 | -15.9% | 31.7% | 41 | 0.1% |
| 3 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.38 | -13.9% | 64.1% | 103 | 0.4% |
| 4 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 2.9% | 0.36 | -30.4% | 34.8% | 589 | 0.9% |
| 5 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Weekly | 3.0% | 0.35 | -24.3% | 40.0% | 20 | 0.9% |
| 6 | Standard Error Bands ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.32 | -19.8% | 25.0% | 16 | -0.3% |
| 7 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.31 | -41.0% | 34.1% | 466 | 0.5% |
| 8 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.3 | -21.1% | 67.9% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 9 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.29 | -24.0% | 32.4% | 37 | 0.3% |
| 10 | Tweezer Bottom ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.29 | -22.7% | 41.7% | 103 | -0.1% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 1.9% | 0.28 | -18.1% | 61.6% | 99 | -0.1% |
| 12 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 1.3% | 0.28 | -12.7% | 57.6% | 59 | -0.8% |
| 13 | Donchian 10 Break ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.28 | -28.2% | 38.1% | 21 | 0.2% |
| 14 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 1.0% | 0.27 | -10.2% | 68.4% | 38 | -1.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on USD/MXN lost money across the out-of-sample window in 554 of 554 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For USD/MXN, RSI Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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