The best indicator for USD/JPY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where USD/JPY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/JPY over ~30.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
USD/JPY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/JPY — beating buy-and-hold by 2.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 4.7% | 0.63 | -53.6% | 36.0% | 736 | 3.6% |
| 2 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 3.8% | 0.53 | -54.3% | 30.6% | 369 | 2.7% |
| 3 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.49 | -39.8% | 37.1% | 367 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.44 | -36.8% | 33.2% | 545 | 2.0% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.44 | -57.2% | 35.0% | 545 | 2.2% |
| 6 | Percentage Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.4 | -22.5% | 39.2% | 51 | 1.5% |
| 7 | PPO Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.4 | -22.5% | 39.2% | 51 | 1.5% |
| 8 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 2.8% | 0.39 | -53.6% | 35.3% | 556 | 1.8% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.36 | -21.4% | 37.7% | 53 | 1.3% |
| 10 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.36 | -28.6% | 52.9% | 51 | 1.3% |
| 11 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.35 | -46.4% | 33.3% | 306 | 1.4% |
| 12 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.34 | -51.7% | 39.3% | 351 | 1.4% |
| 13 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.34 | -55.0% | 37.9% | 369 | 1.3% |
| 14 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.34 | -55.0% | 37.9% | 369 | 1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/JPY
27 of 1312 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY outright. Another 380 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 76 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADXR | 2 | none needed | 14.72× |
| CCI Trend | 1 | 1.07× | 9.22× |
| Smoothed Heikin-Ashi | 1 | 1.13× | 9.43× |
| DeMarker (14) | 1 | 1.19× | 9.12× |
| DMI Direction | 1 | 1.26× | 10.66× |
| CCI (14) | 1 | 1.26× | 10.73× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/JPY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More forex
Get alerted when USD/JPY’s signal flips
We track USD/JPY daily. Its backtested best indicator, Fisher Transform (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.