The best indicator for USD/JPY
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real USD/JPY history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where USD/JPY stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fisher Transform
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for USD/JPY over ~30.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.4% CAGR.
USD/JPY on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for USD/JPY — beating buy-and-hold by 2.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher Transform ✓ | Daily | 4.6% | 0.61 | -53.6% | 36.2% | 729 | 3.4% |
| 2 | DMI Direction ✓ | Daily | 3.7% | 0.52 | -54.3% | 30.4% | 368 | 2.6% |
| 3 | Vortex ✓ | Daily | 3.3% | 0.48 | -39.8% | 37.3% | 365 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Daily | 3.0% | 0.44 | -36.8% | 33.5% | 538 | 1.9% |
| 5 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Daily | 3.2% | 0.43 | -57.2% | 35.1% | 541 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Percentage Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.41 | -22.5% | 40.0% | 50 | 1.5% |
| 7 | PPO Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.41 | -22.5% | 40.0% | 50 | 1.5% |
| 8 | DeMarker (7) ✓ | Daily | 2.7% | 0.38 | -53.6% | 35.4% | 548 | 1.6% |
| 9 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.38 | -21.4% | 38.5% | 52 | 1.3% |
| 10 | Bollinger 30 (x2.0) Break ✓ | Weekly | 1.0% | 0.37 | -8.3% | 57.6% | 33 | -0.2% |
| 11 | Ehlers Reflex ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.36 | -28.6% | 54.9% | 51 | 1.2% |
| 12 | MACD-V ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.36 | -18.6% | 40.0% | 50 | 1.1% |
| 13 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.35 | -46.4% | 33.4% | 305 | 1.2% |
| 14 | Parabolic SAR ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.34 | -51.7% | 39.5% | 347 | 1.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on USD/JPY
27 of 1312 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on USD/JPY outright. Another 380 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 76 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADXR | 2 | none needed | 14.72× |
| CCI Trend | 1 | 1.07× | 9.22× |
| Smoothed Heikin-Ashi | 1 | 1.13× | 9.43× |
| DeMarker (14) | 1 | 1.19× | 9.12× |
| DMI Direction | 1 | 1.26× | 10.66× |
| CCI (14) | 1 | 1.26× | 10.73× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For USD/JPY, Fisher Transform on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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